Frosinone 1–1 Modena: Result & Stats | Serie B

Frosinone

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Modena

F. Distefano 59'

G. Defrel 90+3'

8/27/2024

Serie B · Round 3Stadio Benito Stirpe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Frosinone46%

×Draw26%

Modena28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FrosinoneExpected goals in this matchModena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.07

Frosinone

1.45

Modena

1.07

Frosinone creates 36% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

1.81

creates per match

0.93

1.21

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Frosinone

1.81

Modena

0.93

allows per match

Frosinone

1.21

Modena

1.09

+0.36scores more than expected

finishing

+0.07on par

finishing

Frosinone+0.36scores more

Modena+0.07on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frosinone ↓

Modena →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Frosinone or draw

72%

Frosinone or Modena

74%

Draw or Modena

54%

Winning margin

Frosinone wins by 2+

22%

Modena wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Frosinone 1+ goals

77%

Frosinone 2+ goals

42%

Frosinone 3+ goals

18%

Modena 1+ goals

66%

Modena 2+ goals

29%

Modena 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Frosinone (draw refunded)

62%

Modena (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frosinone at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.21 · 6 matches

Modena away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.09 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frosinone attack 1.81 + Modena defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.45

Modena attack 0.93 + Frosinone defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Frosinone scores more

46%

level

26%

Modena scores more

28%

Frosinone at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Frosinone will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

G. Zaro

Modena · D

8.0

Match Events

23'

Mattia Caldara

41'

Simone Santoro

46'

F. Distefano← A. Oyono

46'

G. Defrel← F. Abiuso

53'

G. Bracaglia← I. Monterisi

53'

İ. Vural← E. Darboe

59'

F. Distefano

62'

Filippo DistefanoGoal confirmed

63'

T. Battistella← Pedro Mendes

63'

E. Gliozzi← S. Santoro

66'

Giuseppe Ambrosino

68'

G. Kvernadze← F. Ghedjemis

75'

K. Bozhanaj← M. Caldara

77'

José Machín← M. Çuni

80'

Fabio Gerli

87'

E. Duca← A. Di Pardo

90+3'

G. Defrel↳ T. Battistella

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FrosinoneModena

Overview

49%Possession51%

12Total Shots10

2Corners6

15Fouls17

Shots

12Total Shots10

3On Target3

5Off Target5

4Blocked2

8Inside Box9

4Outside Box1

Passing

49%Possession51%

413Total Passes432

337Accurate Passes359

82%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

15Fouls17

1Yellow Cards3

0Offsides4