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Modena vs Bari — Serie B 2018

Modena
Modena
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Bari
Bari
P. Mendes 89'
E. Gliozzi 54' (pen), 32' (pen)
9/13/2025Serie BSerie B · Round 3Stadio Alberto Braglia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Modena54%
×Draw26%
Bari21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Modena
1.54
Bari
0.85

Modena creates 81% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 14 away

creates per match

Modena
1.21
Bari
0.72

allows per match

Modena
0.99
Bari
1.86

finishing

Modena-0.39scores less
Bari+0.07on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Modena ↓

Bari →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Modena or draw
79%
Modena or Bari
74%
Draw or Bari
46%

Winning margin

Modena wins by 2+
28%
Bari wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Modena 1+ goals
79%
Modena 2+ goals
45%
Modena 3+ goals
20%
Bari 1+ goals
57%
Bari 2+ goals
21%
Bari 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Modena (draw refunded)
72%
Bari (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Modena at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.99 · 11 matches

Bari away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Modena attack 1.21 + Bari defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.54

Bari attack 0.72 + Modena defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Modena scores more
54%
level
26%
Bari scores more
21%

Modena at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Modena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
E. GliozziModenaModena · F
8.7

Match Events

30'
Mehdi Dorval
32'
E. GliozziPenalty
52'
Luca ZanimacchiaPenalty confirmed
54'
E. GliozziPenalty
56'
E. Rao← A. Partipilo
57'
G. Castrovilli← R. Pagano
59'
Matthias Braunöder
67'
G. Beyuku← L. Zanimacchia
67'
A. Sersanti← N. Pyyhtia
71'
G. Maggiore← M. Braunoder
71'
M. Antonucci← G. Sibilli
74'
Alessandro Sersanti
78'
G. Defrel← F. Di Mariano
79'
P. Mendes← E. Gliozzi
81'
N. Bellomo← M. Dorval
88'
L. Magnino← S. Santoro
89'
P. Mendes↳ G. Defrel

Possession

42%Modena

Shots

16Modena

Pass accuracy

49%Modena

Statistics

ModenaBari
Overview
42%Possession58%
16Total Shots6
2Corners2
22Fouls12
Shots
16Total Shots6
9On Target2
5Off Target3
2Blocked1
11Inside Box5
5Outside Box1
Passing
42%Possession58%
327Total Passes469
269Accurate Passes396
82%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
2Saves6
Discipline
22Fouls12
1Yellow Cards2
1Offsides0

Serie B: Modena 3–0 Bari

Modena beat Bari 3-0 in Serie B on September 13, 2025.

Goals: E. Gliozzi (32' pen, 54' pen), P. Mendes (89').

Bari controlled possession (58%) and registered 6 shots to 16.

The match was played at Stadio Alberto Braglia in Modena.