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Bari vs Modena — Serie B 2018

Bari
Bari
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Modena
Modena
M. Cuni 80'
D. Adorni 31' (OG)
G. Moncini 22' (pen)
G. Ambrosino 90'
4/6/2026Serie BSerie B · Round 33Stadio San Nicola

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Bari32%
×Draw27%
Modena41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bari
1.17
Modena
1.37

Modena creates 17% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 7 away

creates per match

Bari
1.08
Modena
0.98

allows per match

Bari
1.76
Modena
1.25

finishing

Bari-0.16scores less
Modena+0.02on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bari ↓

Modena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Bari or draw
59%
Bari or Modena
73%
Draw or Modena
68%

Winning margin

Bari wins by 2+
13%
Modena wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Bari 1+ goals
69%
Bari 2+ goals
33%
Bari 3+ goals
11%
Modena 1+ goals
75%
Modena 2+ goals
40%
Modena 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Bari (draw refunded)
44%
Modena (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bari at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.76 · 13 matches

Modena away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.25 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bari attack 1.08 + Modena defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.17

Modena attack 0.98 + Bari defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Bari scores more
32%
level
27%
Modena scores more
41%

Modena at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Modena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
L. ChichizolaModenaModena · G
8.7

Match Events

20'
Emanuele RaoPenalty confirmed
22'
G. MonciniPenalty
31'
D. AdorniOwn goal
46'
Y. Massolin← S. Wiafe
46'
G. Beyuku← F. Zampano
48'
G. Ambrosino← E. Gliozzi
51'
Kevin PiscopoPenalty cancelled
59'
Giulio Maggiore
62'
M. Braunoder← F. Artioli
69'
M. Cuni← G. Moncini
69'
M. Dorval← E. Rao
75'
M. Cotali← L. Zanimacchia
79'
G. Defrel← D. Adorni
80'
M. Cuni↳ M. Dorval
87'
M. Verreth← T. Esteves
87'
D. Traore← G. Maggiore
88'
Fabio Gerli
90+7'
Valerio Mantovani
90+7'
Yanis Massolin
90'
G. Ambrosino↳ G. Beyuku

Possession

38%Bari

Shots

12Bari

Pass accuracy

47%Bari

Statistics

BariModena
Overview
38%Possession62%
12Total Shots19
2.22Expected Goals (xG)1.31
4Corners7
2Fouls14
Shots
12Total Shots19
8On Target6
4Off Target9
0Blocked4
10Inside Box13
2Outside Box6
Passing
38%Possession62%
258Total Passes399
182Accurate Passes323
71%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
4Saves6
0.10Goals Prevented0.10
Discipline
2Fouls14
2Yellow Cards2
2Offsides0

Match Recap: Bari vs Modena

Bari beat Modena 3-1 in Serie B on April 6, 2026.

Goals: G. Moncini (22' pen), D. Adorni (31' o.g.), M. Cuni (80'), G. Ambrosino (90').

Modena controlled possession (62%) and registered 19 shots to 12.

The match was played at Stadio San Nicola in Bari.