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Modena vs Bari — Serie B 2018

Modena
Modena
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Bari
Bari
A. Palumbo 51' (pen)
R. Pucino 62'
4/1/2024Serie BSerie B · Round 31Stadio Alberto Braglia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Modena53%
×Draw25%
Bari22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Modena
1.60
Bari
0.93

Modena creates 72% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 14 away

creates per match

Modena
1.33
Bari
0.72

allows per match

Modena
1.14
Bari
1.86

finishing

Modena-0.44scores less
Bari+0.07on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Modena ↓

Bari →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Modena or draw
78%
Modena or Bari
75%
Draw or Bari
47%

Winning margin

Modena wins by 2+
28%
Bari wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Modena 1+ goals
80%
Modena 2+ goals
47%
Modena 3+ goals
22%
Bari 1+ goals
61%
Bari 2+ goals
24%
Bari 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Modena (draw refunded)
71%
Bari (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Modena at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.14 · 9 matches

Bari away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Modena attack 1.33 + Bari defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.60

Bari attack 0.72 + Modena defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Modena scores more
53%
level
25%
Bari scores more
22%

Modena at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Modena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
A. PalumboModenaModena · M
7.7

Match Events

22'
Giuseppe Sibilli
46'
M. Cotali← N. Corrado
46'
M. Aramu← G. Sibilli
46'
V. Colangiuli← G. Puşcaş
49'
Jacopo ManconiPenalty confirmed
51'
A. PalumboPenalty
56'
Jacopo Manconi
61'
E. Gliozzi← J. Manconi
61'
L. Tremolada← A. Palumbo
62'
R. Pucino↳ K. Lulić
71'
L. Strizzolo← F. Abiuso
78'
Antonio Pergreffi
78'
T. Battistella← A. Pergreffi
78'
N. Bellomo← G. Morachioli
81'
Fabio Ponsi
86'
D. Diaw← V. Colangiuli
86'
M. Edjouma← M. Maita
90+6'
Matteo Cotali

Possession

52%Modena

Shots

8Modena

Pass accuracy

51%Modena

Statistics

ModenaBari
Overview
52%Possession48%
8Total Shots8
2Corners3
13Fouls12
Shots
8Total Shots8
2On Target4
3Off Target3
3Blocked1
6Inside Box5
2Outside Box3
Passing
52%Possession48%
447Total Passes422
371Accurate Passes334
83%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
Discipline
13Fouls12
4Yellow Cards1
2Offsides2

Match Recap: Modena vs Bari

Modena and Bari drew 1-1 in Serie B on April 1, 2024.

Goals: A. Palumbo (51' pen), R. Pucino (62').

Modena controlled possession (52%) and registered 8 shots to 8.

The match was played at Stadio Alberto Braglia in Modena.