Bari 1–2 Modena: Result & Stats | Serie B

Bari

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Modena

K. Lasagna 42'

A. Palumbo 18' (pen)

G. Defrel 8'

4/25/2025

Serie B · Round 35Stadio Comunale San Nicola

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Bari30%

×Draw27%

Modena43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BariExpected goals in this matchModena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.37

Bari

1.11

Modena

1.37

Modena creates 23% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 8 away

1.08

creates per match

0.98

1.76

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Bari

1.08

Modena

0.98

allows per match

Bari

1.76

Modena

1.15

-0.16scores less than expected

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Bari-0.16scores less

Modena-0.10scores less

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bari ↓

Modena →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Bari or draw

57%

Bari or Modena

73%

Draw or Modena

70%

Winning margin

Bari wins by 2+

12%

Modena wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Bari 1+ goals

67%

Bari 2+ goals

30%

Bari 3+ goals

10%

Modena 1+ goals

75%

Modena 2+ goals

40%

Modena 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Bari (draw refunded)

42%

Modena (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bari at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.76 · 13 matches

Modena away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.15 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bari attack 1.08 + Modena defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.11

Modena attack 0.98 + Bari defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Bari scores more

30%

level

27%

Modena scores more

43%

Modena at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Modena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

93

M. Dorval

Bari · M

7.7

Match Events

8'

G. Defrel

16'

Antonio PalumboPenalty confirmed

17'

Mattia Maita

18'

A. PalumboPenalty

25'

31'

41'

42'

44'

45+1'

46'

46'

I. Kamate← A. Palumbo

63'

N. Bonfanti← A. Oliveri

63'

K. Bozhanaj← G. Caso

64'

R. Idrissi← M. Cotali

67'

Pedro Mendes← G. Defrel

71'

A. Favilli← K. Lasagna

71'

G. Pereiro← C. Falletti

71'

N. Bellomo← G. Maggiore

81'

Alessandro Di Pardo

83'

Alessandro Di PardoVAR

90'

F. Ponsi← K. Bozhanaj

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BariModena

Overview

53%Possession47%

17Total Shots14

8Corners3

13Fouls8

Shots

17Total Shots14

5On Target5

8Off Target4

4Blocked5

12Inside Box8

5Outside Box6

Passing

53%Possession47%

426Total Passes390

367Accurate Passes318

86%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls8

4Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

1Offsides0

Serie B: Bari 1–2 Modena

Modena beat Bari 2-1 in Serie B on April 25, 2025.

Goals: G. Defrel (8'), A. Palumbo (18' pen), K. Lasagna (42').

Bari controlled possession (53%) and registered 17 shots to 14.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale San Nicola in Bari.

Bari vs Modena — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Bari 1–2 Modena