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Mjallby AIF vs AIK Stockholm — Allsvenskan 2024

Mjallby AIF
Mjallby AIF
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
AIK Stockholm
AIK Stockholm
L. Tidstrand 83'
J. Hove 55' (OG)
7/20/2025AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 16Strandvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Mjallby AIF38%
×Draw28%
AIK Stockholm33%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mjallby AIF
1.21
AIK Stockholm
1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

creates per match

Mjallby AIF
1.64
AIK Stockholm
0.94

allows per match

Mjallby AIF
1.29
AIK Stockholm
0.78

finishing

Mjallby AIF-0.35scores less
AIK Stockholm-0.14scores less

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mjallby AIF ↓

AIK Stockholm →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Mjallby AIF or draw
67%
Mjallby AIF or AIK Stockholm
72%
Draw or AIK Stockholm
62%

Winning margin

Mjallby AIF wins by 2+
16%
AIK Stockholm wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Mjallby AIF 1+ goals
70%
Mjallby AIF 2+ goals
34%
Mjallby AIF 3+ goals
12%
AIK Stockholm 1+ goals
67%
AIK Stockholm 2+ goals
30%
AIK Stockholm 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Mjallby AIF (draw refunded)
53%
AIK Stockholm (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mjallby AIF at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

AIK Stockholm away — creates 0.94, concedes 0.78 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mjallby AIF attack 1.64 + AIK Stockholm defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.21

AIK Stockholm attack 0.94 + Mjallby AIF defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Mjallby AIF scores more
38%
level
28%
AIK Stockholm scores more
33%

Mjallby AIF at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Mjallby AIF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
A. NorenMjallby AIFMjallby AIF · D
7.3

Match Events

45+3'
Anton Salétros
49'
Kristoffer Nordfeldt
55'
Dino Beširović
55'
J. HoveOwn goal
58'
Jesper Gustavsson
62'
B. Celina← T. Ayari
62'
J. Guidetti← E. Flataker
66'
Ludwig Thorell
75'
A. Iqbal← T. Pettersson
75'
A. Petersson← L. Thorell
75'
L. Tidstrand← A. Johansson
82'
T. Stavitski← H. Johansson
82'
A. Kakoullis← D. Besirovic
82'
A. Ali← T. Isherwood
83'
L. Tidstrand
87'
R. Arrhenius← A. Manneh

Possession

55%Mjallby

Shots

10Mjallby

Pass accuracy

52%Mjallby

Statistics

MjallbyAIK
Overview
55%Possession45%
10Total Shots7
0.79Expected Goals (xG)0.39
5Corners5
14Fouls15
Shots
10Total Shots7
2On Target1
6Off Target5
2Blocked1
6Inside Box5
4Outside Box2
Passing
55%Possession45%
458Total Passes371
357Accurate Passes269
78%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
1Saves1
Discipline
14Fouls15
2Yellow Cards3
2Offsides4

Match Recap: Mjallby AIF vs AIK Stockholm

Mjallby AIF beat AIK Stockholm 2-0 in Allsvenskan on July 20, 2025.

Goals: J. Hove (55' o.g.), L. Tidstrand (83').

Mjallby AIF controlled possession (55%) and registered 10 shots to 7.

The match was played at Strandvallen in Hallevik.