Mjallby AIF 1–1 AIK Stockholm: Result & Stats

Mjallby AIF

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

AIK Stockholm

M. Thychosen 73' (OG)

I. Pittas 60'

4/13/2024

Allsvenskan · Round 3Strandvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Mjallby AIF40%

×Draw28%

AIK Stockholm31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mjallby AIFExpected goals in this matchAIK Stockholm

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.04

Mjallby AIF

1.23

AIK Stockholm

1.04

Mjallby AIF creates 18% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

1.59

creates per match

0.88

1.20

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Mjallby AIF

1.59

AIK Stockholm

0.88

allows per match

Mjallby AIF

1.20

AIK Stockholm

0.86

-0.34scores less than expected

finishing

-0.05on par

finishing

Mjallby AIF-0.34scores less

AIK Stockholm-0.05on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mjallby AIF ↓

AIK Stockholm →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Mjallby AIF or draw

69%

Mjallby AIF or AIK Stockholm

72%

Draw or AIK Stockholm

60%

Winning margin

Mjallby AIF wins by 2+

18%

AIK Stockholm wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Mjallby AIF 1+ goals

71%

Mjallby AIF 2+ goals

35%

Mjallby AIF 3+ goals

13%

AIK Stockholm 1+ goals

65%

AIK Stockholm 2+ goals

28%

AIK Stockholm 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Mjallby AIF (draw refunded)

57%

AIK Stockholm (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mjallby AIF at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.20 · 8 matches

AIK Stockholm away — creates 0.88, concedes 0.86 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mjallby AIF attack 1.59 + AIK Stockholm defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.23

AIK Stockholm attack 0.88 + Mjallby AIF defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Mjallby AIF scores more

40%

level

28%

AIK Stockholm scores more

31%

Mjallby AIF at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Mjallby AIF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

T. Pettersson

Mjallby AIF · D

7.6

Match Events

46'

I. Jagne← A. Johansson

50'

Jacob Bergström

60'

I. Pittas↳ Rui Modesto

62'

Viktor Gustafson

71'

H. Johansson← E. Stroud

73'

M. ThychosenOwn goal

80'

A. Brorsson← V. Gustafson

82'

B. Celina← A. Ali

90'

Ismaila Cheick Coulibaly

90+2'

V. Andersson← I. Coulibaly

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MjallbyAIK

Overview

53%Possession47%

9Total Shots13

1.25Expected Goals (xG)0.58

7Corners2

18Fouls12

Shots

9Total Shots13

2On Target3

5Off Target4

2Blocked6

6Inside Box6

3Outside Box7

Passing

53%Possession47%

469Total Passes415

369Accurate Passes331

79%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

18Fouls12

2Yellow Cards1

0Offsides2