AIK Stockholm 2–1 Mjallby AIF: Result & Stats

AIK Stockholm

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Mjallby AIF

A. Saletros 61'

V. Andersson 23'

E. Stroud 10'

5/11/2025

Allsvenskan · Round 8Strawberry Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

AIK Stockholm47%

×Draw24%

Mjallby AIF29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AIK StockholmExpected goals in this matchMjallby AIF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.23

AIK Stockholm

1.64

Mjallby AIF

1.23

AIK Stockholm creates 33% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

1.43

creates per match

1.26

1.20

allows per match

1.84

creates per match

AIK Stockholm

1.43

Mjallby AIF

1.26

allows per match

AIK Stockholm

1.20

Mjallby AIF

1.84

-0.03on par

finishing

+1.03scores more than expected

finishing

AIK Stockholm-0.03on par

Mjallby AIF+1.03scores more

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AIK Stockholm ↓

Mjallby AIF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

AIK Stockholm or draw

71%

AIK Stockholm or Mjallby AIF

76%

Draw or Mjallby AIF

53%

Winning margin

AIK Stockholm wins by 2+

24%

Mjallby AIF wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

AIK Stockholm 1+ goals

81%

AIK Stockholm 2+ goals

49%

AIK Stockholm 3+ goals

23%

Mjallby AIF 1+ goals

71%

Mjallby AIF 2+ goals

35%

Mjallby AIF 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

AIK Stockholm (draw refunded)

62%

Mjallby AIF (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AIK Stockholm at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Mjallby AIF away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.84 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AIK Stockholm attack 1.43 + Mjallby AIF defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.64

Mjallby AIF attack 1.26 + AIK Stockholm defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

AIK Stockholm scores more

47%

level

24%

Mjallby AIF scores more

29%

AIK Stockholm at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "AIK Stockholm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

E. Stroud

Mjallby AIF · M

7.9

Match Events

10'

21'

23'

27'

54'

J. Guidetti← V. Andersson

61'

A. Saletros↳ D. Besirovic

72'

F. Benkovic← B. Tiedemann

72'

K. Karlsson← J. Hove

74'

T. Pettersson← A. Noren

74'

L. Tidstrand← J. Bergstrom

74'

L. Thorell← V. Gustafson

82'

Herman Johansson

82'

T. Stavitski← H. Johansson

84'

J. Uronen← M. Thychosen

90+1'

Kristoffer Nordfeldt

90+1'

A. Johansson← A. Manneh

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AIKMjallby

Overview

39%Possession61%

12Total Shots14

2.12Expected Goals (xG)1.24

7Corners6

11Fouls8

Shots

12Total Shots14

6On Target4

3Off Target5

3Blocked5

5Inside Box8

7Outside Box6

Passing

39%Possession61%

344Total Passes532

229Accurate Passes431

67%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

11Fouls8

2Yellow Cards2

2Offsides1