AIK Stockholm 1–0 Mjallby AIF: Result & Stats

AIK Stockholm

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Mjallby AIF

Rui Modesto 56'

8/11/2024

Allsvenskan · Round 18Strawberry Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

AIK Stockholm44%

×Draw25%

Mjallby AIF31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AIK StockholmExpected goals in this matchMjallby AIF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.24

AIK Stockholm

1.52

Mjallby AIF

1.24

AIK Stockholm creates 23% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 8 away

1.33

creates per match

1.26

1.22

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

AIK Stockholm

1.33

Mjallby AIF

1.26

allows per match

AIK Stockholm

1.22

Mjallby AIF

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.74scores more than expected

finishing

AIK Stockholm+0.00on par

Mjallby AIF+0.74scores more

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AIK Stockholm ↓

Mjallby AIF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

AIK Stockholm or draw

69%

AIK Stockholm or Mjallby AIF

75%

Draw or Mjallby AIF

56%

Winning margin

AIK Stockholm wins by 2+

22%

Mjallby AIF wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

AIK Stockholm 1+ goals

78%

AIK Stockholm 2+ goals

45%

AIK Stockholm 3+ goals

20%

Mjallby AIF 1+ goals

71%

Mjallby AIF 2+ goals

35%

Mjallby AIF 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

AIK Stockholm (draw refunded)

58%

Mjallby AIF (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AIK Stockholm at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.22 · 6 matches

Mjallby AIF away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.71 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AIK Stockholm attack 1.33 + Mjallby AIF defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.52

Mjallby AIF attack 1.26 + AIK Stockholm defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

AIK Stockholm scores more

44%

level

25%

Mjallby AIF scores more

31%

AIK Stockholm at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "AIK Stockholm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

32

Rui Modesto

AIK Stockholm · D

8.7

Match Events

50'

A. Björnström← E. Edh

56'

Rui Modesto↳ A. Salétros

61'

Rasmus Wikström

69'

I. Jagne← A. Manneh

69'

A. Johansson← V. Gustafson

76'

A. Milošević← T. Ayari

77'

Abdullah Iqbal← T. Pettersson

86'

Bersant Celina

90+2'

Kristoffer Nordfeldt

90+3'

J. Guidetti← I. Pittas

90+3'

E. Ring← B. Celina

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AIKMjallby

Overview

52%Possession48%

10Total Shots13

0.87Expected Goals (xG)1.31

6Corners6

15Fouls9

Shots

10Total Shots13

4On Target5

4Off Target4

2Blocked4

5Inside Box8

5Outside Box5

Passing

52%Possession48%

436Total Passes411

341Accurate Passes318

78%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

Discipline

15Fouls9

2Yellow Cards1

6Offsides0