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Mjallby AIF vs AIK Stockholm — Svenska Cupen 2019

Mjallby AIF
Mjallby AIF
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
AIK Stockholm
AIK Stockholmadvanced
3/9/2024Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · Quarter-finalsStrandvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Mjallby AIF30%
×Draw22%
AIK Stockholm48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mjallby AIF
1.52
AIK Stockholm
1.96

AIK Stockholm creates 29% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 19 away

creates per match

Mjallby AIF
2.00
AIK Stockholm
3.11

allows per match

Mjallby AIF
0.81
AIK Stockholm
1.05

finishing

Mjallby AIF+0.00on par
AIK Stockholm+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mjallby AIF ↓

AIK Stockholm →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Mjallby AIF or draw
52%
Mjallby AIF or AIK Stockholm
78%
Draw or AIK Stockholm
70%

Winning margin

Mjallby AIF wins by 2+
14%
AIK Stockholm wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Mjallby AIF 1+ goals
78%
Mjallby AIF 2+ goals
45%
Mjallby AIF 3+ goals
20%
AIK Stockholm 1+ goals
86%
AIK Stockholm 2+ goals
58%
AIK Stockholm 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Mjallby AIF (draw refunded)
39%
AIK Stockholm (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mjallby AIF at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.81 · 21 matches

AIK Stockholm away — creates 3.11, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mjallby AIF attack 2.00 + AIK Stockholm defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.52

AIK Stockholm attack 3.11 + Mjallby AIF defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Mjallby AIF scores more
30%
level
22%
AIK Stockholm scores more
48%

AIK Stockholm at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "AIK Stockholm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mjallby AIF vs AIK Stockholm

AIK Stockholm beat Mjallby AIF 3-1 in Svenska Cupen on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Strandvallen in Sölvesborg.