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Mjallby AIF vs AIK Stockholm — Allsvenskan 2026

Mjallby AIF
Mjallby AIF
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
AIK Stockholm
AIK Stockholm
T. Silverholt 76'
M. Ogbu 43' (pen), 10'
E. Adu 40' (pen)
8/9/2020AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 14Strandvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Mjallby AIF45%
×Draw27%
AIK Stockholm28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mjallby AIF
1.41
AIK Stockholm
1.05

Mjallby AIF creates 34% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 27 away

creates per match

Mjallby AIF
1.61
AIK Stockholm
1.02

allows per match

Mjallby AIF
1.08
AIK Stockholm
1.21

finishing

Mjallby AIF-0.03on par
AIK Stockholm+0.05on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mjallby AIF ↓

AIK Stockholm →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Mjallby AIF or draw
72%
Mjallby AIF or AIK Stockholm
73%
Draw or AIK Stockholm
55%

Winning margin

Mjallby AIF wins by 2+
22%
AIK Stockholm wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Mjallby AIF 1+ goals
76%
Mjallby AIF 2+ goals
41%
Mjallby AIF 3+ goals
17%
AIK Stockholm 1+ goals
65%
AIK Stockholm 2+ goals
28%
AIK Stockholm 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Mjallby AIF (draw refunded)
62%
AIK Stockholm (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mjallby AIF at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.08 · 19 matches

AIK Stockholm away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.21 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mjallby AIF attack 1.61 + AIK Stockholm defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.41

AIK Stockholm attack 1.02 + Mjallby AIF defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Mjallby AIF scores more
45%
level
27%
AIK Stockholm scores more
28%

Mjallby AIF at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Mjallby AIF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

90
Moses OgbuMjallby AIFMjallby AIF · F
8.9

Match Events

10'
M. Ogbu↳ M. Jeahze
35'
R. Tihi
40'
E. AduPenalty
42'
P. Karlsson
43'
M. OgbuPenalty
58'
M. Jeahze
62'
E. Adu← E. Ofori
62'
R. Lindkvist← E. Kahl
62'
S. Silva← N. Bahoui
66'
R. Lundstrom← R. Lundstrom
72'
M. Moro← T. Silverholt
76'
T. Silverholt↳ M. Watson
79'
F. Michel Melki← T. Strannegard
82'
V. Gustafson← D. Batanero
85'
D. Lofquist← A. Petersson

Possession

52%Mjallby

Shots

13Mjallby

Pass accuracy

51%Mjallby

Statistics

MjallbyAIK
Overview
52%Possession48%
13Total Shots8
2Corners4
11Fouls11
Shots
13Total Shots8
5On Target1
6Off Target4
2Blocked3
7Inside Box4
6Outside Box4
Passing
52%Possession48%
487Total Passes433
407Accurate Passes354
84%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
0Saves2
Discipline
11Fouls11
1Yellow Cards2
1Offsides3

Match Recap: Mjallby AIF vs AIK Stockholm

Mjallby AIF beat AIK Stockholm 3-1 in Allsvenskan on August 9, 2020.

Goals: M. Ogbu (10', 43' pen), E. Adu (40' pen), T. Silverholt (76').

Mjallby AIF controlled possession (52%) and registered 13 shots to 8.

The match was played at Strandvallen in Sölvesborg.