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Mirassol vs Ceara — Serie A 2026

Mirassol
Mirassol
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Ceara
Ceara
11/24/2025Serie ASerie A · Round 35Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Mirassol52%
×Draw25%
Ceara23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mirassol
1.56
Ceara
0.95

Mirassol creates 64% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 114 away

creates per match

Mirassol
1.90
Ceara
0.89

allows per match

Mirassol
1.00
Ceara
1.23

finishing

Mirassol+0.00on par
Ceara+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mirassol ↓

Ceara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Mirassol or draw
77%
Mirassol or Ceara
75%
Draw or Ceara
48%

Winning margin

Mirassol wins by 2+
27%
Ceara wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Mirassol 1+ goals
79%
Mirassol 2+ goals
46%
Mirassol 3+ goals
21%
Ceara 1+ goals
61%
Ceara 2+ goals
25%
Ceara 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Mirassol (draw refunded)
69%
Ceara (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mirassol at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.00 · 29 matches

Ceara away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.23 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mirassol attack 1.90 + Ceara defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.56

Ceara attack 0.89 + Mirassol defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Mirassol scores more
52%
level
25%
Ceara scores more
23%

Mirassol at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Mirassol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mirassol vs Ceara

Mirassol beat Ceara 3-0 in Serie A on November 24, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia in Mirassol.