Ceara 2–0 Mirassol: Result & Stats | Serie B

Ceara

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Mirassol

11/12/2023

Serie B · Round 36Estádio Municipal Presidente Getúlio Vargas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Ceara44%

×Draw29%

Mirassol27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CearaExpected goals in this matchMirassol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

0.89

Ceara

1.22

Mirassol

0.89

Ceara creates 37% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 38 away

1.41

creates per match

0.87

0.90

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

Ceara

1.41

Mirassol

0.87

allows per match

Ceara

0.90

Mirassol

1.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ceara+0.00on par

Mirassol+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ceara ↓

Mirassol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Ceara or draw

73%

Ceara or Mirassol

71%

Draw or Mirassol

56%

Winning margin

Ceara wins by 2+

19%

Mirassol wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Ceara 1+ goals

70%

Ceara 2+ goals

34%

Ceara 3+ goals

12%

Mirassol 1+ goals

59%

Mirassol 2+ goals

22%

Mirassol 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Ceara (draw refunded)

62%

Mirassol (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ceara at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.90 · 49 matches

Mirassol away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.03 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ceara attack 1.41 + Mirassol defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.22

Mirassol attack 0.87 + Ceara defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Ceara scores more

44%

level

29%

Mirassol scores more

27%

Ceara at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Ceara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff