Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Mirassol vs Ceara — Serie B 2026

Mirassol
Mirassol
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Ceara
Ceara
4/29/2024Serie BSerie B · Round 2Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Mirassol50%
×Draw28%
Ceara22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mirassol
1.35
Ceara
0.79

Mirassol creates 71% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 50 away

creates per match

Mirassol
1.34
Ceara
1.10

allows per match

Mirassol
0.47
Ceara
1.36

finishing

Mirassol+0.00on par
Ceara+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mirassol ↓

Ceara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Mirassol or draw
78%
Mirassol or Ceara
72%
Draw or Ceara
50%

Winning margin

Mirassol wins by 2+
24%
Ceara wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Mirassol 1+ goals
74%
Mirassol 2+ goals
39%
Mirassol 3+ goals
15%
Ceara 1+ goals
55%
Ceara 2+ goals
19%
Ceara 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Mirassol (draw refunded)
70%
Ceara (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mirassol at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.47 · 38 matches

Ceara away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.36 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mirassol attack 1.34 + Ceara defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.35

Ceara attack 1.10 + Mirassol defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Mirassol scores more
50%
level
28%
Ceara scores more
22%

Mirassol at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Mirassol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie B: Mirassol 3–2 Ceara

Mirassol beat Ceara 3-2 in Serie B on April 29, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia in Mirassol, São Paulo.