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Ceara vs Mirassol — Serie A 2026

Ceara
Ceara
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Mirassol
Mirassol
7/23/2025Serie ASerie A · Round 16Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Ceara41%
×Draw29%
Mirassol30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ceara
1.21
Mirassol
1.00

Ceara creates 21% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 27 away

creates per match

Ceara
1.12
Mirassol
1.04

allows per match

Ceara
0.96
Mirassol
1.30

finishing

Ceara+0.00on par
Mirassol+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ceara ↓

Mirassol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Ceara or draw
70%
Ceara or Mirassol
71%
Draw or Mirassol
59%

Winning margin

Ceara wins by 2+
18%
Mirassol wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Ceara 1+ goals
70%
Ceara 2+ goals
34%
Ceara 3+ goals
12%
Mirassol 1+ goals
63%
Mirassol 2+ goals
26%
Mirassol 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Ceara (draw refunded)
57%
Mirassol (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ceara at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.96 · 113 matches

Mirassol away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.30 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ceara attack 1.12 + Mirassol defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.21

Mirassol attack 1.04 + Ceara defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ceara scores more
41%
level
29%
Mirassol scores more
30%

Ceara at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ceara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ceara vs Mirassol

Mirassol beat Ceara 2-0 in Serie A on July 23, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo in Fortaleza.