Millwall 0–1 Luton: Result & Stats | Championship

Millwall

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Luton

T. Mengi 10'

9/14/2024

Championship · Round 5The Den

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Millwall47%

×Draw27%

Luton25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MillwallExpected goals in this matchLuton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

0.93

Millwall

1.38

Luton

0.93

Millwall creates 48% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 12 away

1.27

creates per match

0.79

1.06

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Millwall

1.27

Luton

0.79

allows per match

Millwall

1.06

Luton

1.48

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

+0.04on par

finishing

Millwall-0.13scores less

Luton+0.04on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millwall ↓

Luton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Millwall or draw

75%

Millwall or Luton

73%

Draw or Luton

53%

Winning margin

Millwall wins by 2+

23%

Luton wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Millwall 1+ goals

75%

Millwall 2+ goals

40%

Millwall 3+ goals

16%

Luton 1+ goals

61%

Luton 2+ goals

24%

Luton 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Millwall (draw refunded)

65%

Luton (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Millwall at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.06 · 56 matches

Luton away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.48 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Millwall attack 1.27 + Luton defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.38

Luton attack 0.79 + Millwall defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Millwall scores more

47%

level

27%

Luton scores more

25%

Millwall at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Millwall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

L. Jensen

Millwall · G

7.3

Match Events

10'

T. Mengi↳ L. Walsh

22'

Casper De Norre

34'

M. Langstaff← J. Coburn

41'

Teden Mengi

46'

S. Hutchinson← J. Cooper

67'

O. Azeez← G. Honeyman

67'

C. Morris← E. Adebayo

69'

P. Mpanzu← M. Nakamba

79'

79'

85'

89'

90+4'

90+3'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MillwallLuton

Overview

52%Possession48%

11Total Shots10

0.97Expected Goals (xG)0.58

6Corners4

8Fouls20

Shots

11Total Shots10

3On Target6

5Off Target3

3Blocked1

8Inside Box8

3Outside Box2

Passing

52%Possession48%

322Total Passes320

237Accurate Passes220

74%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

0.98Goals Prevented0.98

Discipline

8Fouls20

2Yellow Cards3

3Offsides0

Championship: Millwall 0–1 Luton

Luton beat Millwall 1-0 in Championship on September 14, 2024.

Goals: T. Mengi (10').

Millwall controlled possession (52%) and registered 11 shots to 10.

The match was played at The Den in London.

Millwall vs Luton — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: Millwall 0–1 Luton