Luton 0–1 Millwall: Result & Stats | Championship

Luton

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Millwall

M. Ivanović 61'

1/25/2025

Championship · Round 29Kenilworth Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Luton45%

×Draw27%

Millwall28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LutonExpected goals in this matchMillwall

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.00

Luton

1.35

Millwall

1.00

Luton creates 35% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 53 away

1.37

creates per match

1.15

0.85

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Luton

1.37

Millwall

1.15

allows per match

Luton

0.85

Millwall

1.32

-0.60scores less than expected

finishing

-0.09on par

finishing

Luton-0.60scores less

Millwall-0.09on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luton ↓

Millwall →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Luton or draw

72%

Luton or Millwall

73%

Draw or Millwall

55%

Winning margin

Luton wins by 2+

21%

Millwall wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Luton 1+ goals

74%

Luton 2+ goals

39%

Luton 3+ goals

15%

Millwall 1+ goals

63%

Millwall 2+ goals

26%

Millwall 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Luton (draw refunded)

62%

Millwall (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luton at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

Millwall away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.32 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luton attack 1.37 + Millwall defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.35

Millwall attack 1.15 + Luton defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Luton scores more

45%

level

27%

Millwall scores more

28%

Luton at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Luton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

T. Kaminski

Luton · G

7.9

Match Events

17'

A. Connolly← C. Scanlon

34'

Aaron ConnollyMissed penalty

61'

E. Adebayo← T. Krauß

61'

M. Ivanović↳ R. Bangura-Williams

67'

68'

71'

74'

74'

75'

83'

G. Honeyman← D. Watmore

88'

George Honeyman

90+8'

Liam Walsh

90+7'

Japhet Tanganga

90+3'

L. Roberts← L. Jensen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LutonMillwall

Overview

55%Possession45%

12Total Shots13

1.45Expected Goals (xG)1.60

7Corners5

11Fouls19

Shots

12Total Shots13

2On Target6

6Off Target2

4Blocked5

12Inside Box7

0Outside Box6

Passing

55%Possession45%

314Total Passes258

193Accurate Passes162

61%Pass Accuracy63%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

0.73Goals Prevented0.73

Discipline

11Fouls19

2Yellow Cards4

3Offsides2

Match Recap: Luton vs Millwall

Millwall beat Luton 1-0 in Championship on January 25, 2025.

Goals: M. Ivanović (61').

Luton controlled possession (55%) and registered 12 shots to 13.

The match was played at Kenilworth Road in Luton, Bedfordshire.

Luton vs Millwall — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Luton vs Millwall