Millwall 0–0 Luton: Result & Stats | Championship

Millwall

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Luton

4/7/2023

Championship · Round 40The Den

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Millwall48%

×Draw27%

Luton25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MillwallExpected goals in this matchLuton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

0.95

Millwall

1.43

Luton

0.95

Millwall creates 51% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 21 away

1.27

creates per match

0.85

1.05

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Millwall

1.27

Luton

0.85

allows per match

Millwall

1.05

Luton

1.59

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

-0.04on par

finishing

Millwall-0.13scores less

Luton-0.04on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millwall ↓

Luton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Millwall or draw

75%

Millwall or Luton

73%

Draw or Luton

52%

Winning margin

Millwall wins by 2+

24%

Luton wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Millwall 1+ goals

76%

Millwall 2+ goals

42%

Millwall 3+ goals

17%

Luton 1+ goals

61%

Luton 2+ goals

25%

Luton 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Millwall (draw refunded)

66%

Luton (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Millwall at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.05 · 57 matches

Luton away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.59 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Millwall attack 1.27 + Luton defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.43

Luton attack 0.85 + Millwall defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Millwall scores more

48%

level

27%

Luton scores more

25%

Millwall at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Millwall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

34

E. Horvath

Luton · G

7.7

Match Events

40'

George Saville

58'

Alfie Doughty

77'

Allan Campbell

82'

S. Malone← S. Hutchinson

82'

R. Esse← A. Voglsammer

83'

B. Mitchell← O. Burke

87'

C. Woodrow← A. Campbell

88'

J. Shackleton← R. Leonard

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MillwallLuton

Overview

50%Possession50%

14Total Shots6

4Corners4

7Fouls13

Shots

14Total Shots6

4On Target2

4Off Target1

6Blocked3

9Inside Box2

5Outside Box4

Passing

50%Possession50%

304Total Passes307

177Accurate Passes200

58%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

7Fouls13

1Yellow Cards2

2Offsides1