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Luton vs Millwall — Championship 2018

Luton
Luton
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Millwall
Millwall
J. Cooper 87' (OG)
E. Adebayo 33'
B. Afobe 81'
T. Bradshaw 25'
4/2/2022ChampionshipChampionship · Round 40Kenilworth Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Luton44%
×Draw27%
Millwall28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luton
1.36
Millwall
1.03

Luton creates 32% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 54 away

creates per match

Luton
1.39
Millwall
1.14

allows per match

Luton
0.93
Millwall
1.34

finishing

Luton-0.29scores less
Millwall-0.08on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luton ↓

Millwall →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Luton or draw
72%
Luton or Millwall
73%
Draw or Millwall
56%

Winning margin

Luton wins by 2+
21%
Millwall wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Luton 1+ goals
74%
Luton 2+ goals
39%
Luton 3+ goals
16%
Millwall 1+ goals
64%
Millwall 2+ goals
28%
Millwall 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Luton (draw refunded)
61%
Millwall (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luton at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.93 · 21 matches

Millwall away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.34 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luton attack 1.39 + Millwall defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.36

Millwall attack 1.14 + Luton defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Luton scores more
44%
level
27%
Millwall scores more
28%

Luton at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Luton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17
G. SavilleMillwallMillwall · M
7.5

Match Events

25'
T. Bradshaw↳ J. Wallace
33'
E. Adebayo↳ A. Bell
64'
F. Onyedinma← H. Cornick
73'
O. Burke← T. Bradshaw
81'
B. Afobe↳ O. Burke
83'
C. Jerome← D. Potts
83'
R. Snodgrass← P. Mpanzu
87'
J. CooperOwn goal
90+3'
M. Kieftenbeld← J. Wallace

Possession

55%Luton

Shots

9Luton

Pass accuracy

55%Luton

Statistics

LutonMillwall
Overview
55%Possession45%
9Total Shots10
5Corners4
6Fouls10
Shots
9Total Shots10
2On Target4
2Off Target3
5Blocked3
3Inside Box6
6Outside Box4
Passing
55%Possession45%
369Total Passes299
243Accurate Passes165
66%Pass Accuracy55%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
6Fouls10
2Offsides0

Championship: Luton 2–2 Millwall

Luton and Millwall drew 2-2 in Championship on April 2, 2022.

Goals: T. Bradshaw (25'), E. Adebayo (33'), B. Afobe (81'), J. Cooper (87' o.g.).

Luton controlled possession (55%) and registered 9 shots to 10.

The match was played at Kenilworth Road in Luton, Bedfordshire.