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Millwall vs Luton — Championship 2018

Millwall
Millwall
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Luton
Luton
M. Smith 81'
C. Mahoney 78'
T. Bradshaw 69'
S. Bradley 41'
1/1/2020ChampionshipChampionship · Round 26The Den

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Millwall48%
×Draw27%
Luton25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Millwall
1.42
Luton
0.94

Millwall creates 51% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 21 away

creates per match

Millwall
1.25
Luton
0.85

allows per match

Millwall
1.02
Luton
1.59

finishing

Millwall-0.10scores less
Luton-0.04on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millwall ↓

Luton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Millwall or draw
75%
Millwall or Luton
73%
Draw or Luton
52%

Winning margin

Millwall wins by 2+
24%
Luton wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Millwall 1+ goals
76%
Millwall 2+ goals
41%
Millwall 3+ goals
17%
Luton 1+ goals
61%
Luton 2+ goals
24%
Luton 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Millwall (draw refunded)
66%
Luton (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Millwall at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.02 · 60 matches

Luton away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.59 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Millwall attack 1.25 + Luton defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.42

Luton attack 0.85 + Millwall defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Millwall scores more
48%
level
27%
Luton scores more
25%

Millwall at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Millwall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
M. SmithMillwallMillwall · F
9.0

Match Events

41'
S. Bradley↳ A. Sheehan
42'
T. Bradshaw← A. Pearce
62'
L. Berry← C. McManaman
69'
T. Bradshaw↳ M. Smith
71'
C. Mahoney← A. OBrien
75'
H. Cornick← K. LuaLua
78'
C. Mahoney↳ J. Wallace
81'
M. Smith↳ C. Mahoney
82'
L. Bolton← A. Sheehan
85'
M. Wallace← J. Wallace

Possession

62%Millwall

Shots

20Millwall

Pass accuracy

54%Millwall

Statistics

MillwallLuton
Overview
62%Possession38%
20Total Shots6
5Corners1
10Fouls13
Shots
20Total Shots6
7On Target4
10Off Target0
3Blocked2
14Inside Box2
6Outside Box4
Passing
62%Possession38%
427Total Passes256
329Accurate Passes166
77%Pass Accuracy65%
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
Discipline
10Fouls13
0Offsides2

Match Recap: Millwall vs Luton

Millwall beat Luton 3-1 in Championship on January 1, 2020.

Goals: S. Bradley (41'), T. Bradshaw (69'), C. Mahoney (78'), M. Smith (81').

Millwall controlled possession (62%) and registered 20 shots to 6.

The match was played at The Den in London.