Millwall 1–0 Leicester: Result & Stats

Millwall

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Leicester

F. Azeez 44'

10/25/2025

Championship · Round 12The Den

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Millwall40%

×Draw27%

Leicester33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MillwallExpected goals in this matchLeicester

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.19

Millwall

1.35

Leicester

1.19

Millwall creates 13% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 11 away

1.32

creates per match

1.37

1.01

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Millwall

1.32

Leicester

1.37

allows per match

Millwall

1.01

Leicester

1.38

+0.06on par

finishing

-0.19scores less than expected

finishing

Millwall+0.06on par

Leicester-0.19scores less

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millwall ↓

Leicester →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Millwall or draw

67%

Millwall or Leicester

73%

Draw or Leicester

60%

Winning margin

Millwall wins by 2+

19%

Leicester wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Millwall 1+ goals

74%

Millwall 2+ goals

39%

Millwall 3+ goals

15%

Leicester 1+ goals

70%

Leicester 2+ goals

33%

Leicester 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Millwall (draw refunded)

55%

Leicester (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Millwall at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.01 · 21 matches

Leicester away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.38 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Millwall attack 1.32 + Leicester defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.35

Leicester attack 1.37 + Millwall defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Millwall scores more

40%

level

27%

Leicester scores more

33%

Millwall at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Millwall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

F. Azeez

Millwall · M

9.2

Match Events

28'

Jake Cooper

44'

F. Azeez↳ C. De Norre

49'

J. Carranza← A. Ramsey

53'

Ricardo Pereira

63'

W. Faes← L. Thomas

63'

S. Thomas← J. Monga

68'

B. Mitchell← C. De Norre

76'

76'

78'

83'

90+1'

90+2'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MillwallLeicester

Overview

47%Possession53%

9Total Shots12

1.51Expected Goals (xG)0.76

5Corners9

12Fouls8

Shots

9Total Shots12

4On Target3

4Off Target6

1Blocked3

7Inside Box7

2Outside Box5

Passing

47%Possession53%

310Total Passes356

210Accurate Passes286

68%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

0.39Goals Prevented0.39

Discipline

12Fouls8

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides2

Championship: Millwall 1–0 Leicester

Millwall beat Leicester 1-0 in Championship on October 25, 2025.

Goals: F. Azeez (44').

Leicester controlled possession (53%) and registered 12 shots to 9.

The match was played at The Den in London.

Millwall vs Leicester — Championship 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: Millwall 1–0 Leicester