Leicester 1–1 Millwall: Result & Stats

Leicester

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Millwall

J. Cooper 78' (OG)

M. Langstaff 90'

4/24/2026

Championship · Round 45King Power Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Leicester36%

×Draw26%

Millwall38%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeicesterExpected goals in this matchMillwall

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.32

Leicester

1.27

Millwall

1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 16 away

1.09

creates per match

1.39

1.25

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Leicester

1.09

Millwall

1.39

allows per match

Leicester

1.25

Millwall

1.46

+0.73scores more than expected

finishing

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

Leicester+0.73scores more

Millwall-0.26scores less

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leicester ↓

Millwall →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Leicester or draw

62%

Leicester or Millwall

74%

Draw or Millwall

64%

Winning margin

Leicester wins by 2+

15%

Millwall wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Leicester 1+ goals

72%

Leicester 2+ goals

36%

Leicester 3+ goals

14%

Millwall 1+ goals

73%

Millwall 2+ goals

38%

Millwall 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Leicester (draw refunded)

48%

Millwall (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leicester at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.25 · 11 matches

Millwall away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.46 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leicester attack 1.09 + Millwall defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.27

Millwall attack 1.39 + Leicester defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Leicester scores more

36%

level

26%

Millwall scores more

38%

Millwall at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Millwall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

H. Souttar

Leicester · D

8.5

Match Events

10'

M. Ivanovic← J. Coburn

50'

Jake Cooper

60'

Femi Azeez

60'

L. Page← D. Mukasa

60'

J. Monga← B. De Cordova-Reid

67'

Thierno Ballo

72'

Hamza Choudhury

72'

M. Langstaff← T. Ballo

78'

J. CooperOwn goal

80'

S. Mavididi← I. Fatawu

80'

J. James← O. Skipp

82'

B. Bannan← D. Mazou-Sacko

82'

L. Cundle← Z. Sturge

82'

T. Watson← C. De Norre

90+5'

O. Aluko← P. Daka

90'

M. Langstaff↳ R. Leonard

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeicesterMillwall

Overview

47%Possession53%

10Total Shots22

0.93Expected Goals (xG)1.94

2Corners12

12Fouls8

Shots

10Total Shots22

3On Target4

2Off Target7

5Blocked11

3Inside Box12

7Outside Box10

Passing

47%Possession53%

386Total Passes413

313Accurate Passes322

81%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

-0.17Goals Prevented-0.17

Discipline

12Fouls8

1Yellow Cards3

2Offsides3