Leicester 3–2 Millwall: Result & Stats

Leicester

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Millwall

Ricardo Pereira 78'

P. Daka 52'

J. Vestergaard 48'

K. Nisbet 90+3'

T. Bradshaw 10'

12/13/2023

Championship · Round 21King Power Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Leicester34%

×Draw26%

Millwall40%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeicesterExpected goals in this matchMillwall

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.37

Leicester

1.25

Millwall

1.37

Millwall creates 10% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 26 away

1.14

creates per match

1.46

1.28

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Leicester

1.14

Millwall

1.46

allows per match

Leicester

1.28

Millwall

1.36

+0.78scores more than expected

finishing

-0.19scores less than expected

finishing

Leicester+0.78scores more

Millwall-0.19scores less

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leicester ↓

Millwall →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Leicester or draw

60%

Leicester or Millwall

74%

Draw or Millwall

66%

Winning margin

Leicester wins by 2+

15%

Millwall wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Leicester 1+ goals

71%

Leicester 2+ goals

36%

Leicester 3+ goals

13%

Millwall 1+ goals

75%

Millwall 2+ goals

40%

Millwall 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Leicester (draw refunded)

46%

Millwall (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leicester at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.28 · 13 matches

Millwall away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.36 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leicester attack 1.14 + Millwall defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.25

Millwall attack 1.46 + Leicester defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Leicester scores more

34%

level

26%

Millwall scores more

40%

Millwall at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Millwall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

J. Vestergaard

Leicester · D

8.5

Match Events

10'

T. Bradshaw↳ M. Wallace

13'

21'

24'

37'

46'

D. McNamara← M. Wallace

48'

J. Vestergaard↳ K. Dewsbury-Hall

52'

P. Daka↳ W. Ndidi

59'

J. Justin← C. Coady

71'

T. Cannon← P. Daka

74'

George Saville

74'

Z. Flemming← D. Watmore

74'

K. Nisbet← T. Bradshaw

78'

Ricardo Pereira

79'

D. Praet← K. Dewsbury-Hall

82'

Wout Faes

82'

R. Longman← G. Honeyman

83'

B. Mitchell← A. Campbell

90+3'

K. Nisbet

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeicesterMillwall

Overview

78%Possession22%

15Total Shots11

2.04Expected Goals (xG)1.73

9Corners3

5Fouls16

Shots

15Total Shots11

6On Target6

5Off Target1

4Blocked4

12Inside Box11

3Outside Box0

Passing

78%Possession22%

873Total Passes240

791Accurate Passes159

91%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

5Fouls16

2Yellow Cards4

1Offsides0