Millwall 1–0 Leicester: Result & Stats

Millwall

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Leicester

R. Longman 59'

4/9/2024

Championship · Round 42The Den

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Millwall42%

×Draw27%

Leicester31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MillwallExpected goals in this matchLeicester

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.12

Millwall

1.35

Leicester

1.12

Millwall creates 21% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 14 away

1.44

creates per match

1.32

0.92

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Millwall

1.44

Leicester

1.32

allows per match

Millwall

0.92

Leicester

1.27

-0.01on par

finishing

-0.18scores less than expected

finishing

Millwall-0.01on par

Leicester-0.18scores less

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millwall ↓

Leicester →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Millwall or draw

69%

Millwall or Leicester

73%

Draw or Leicester

58%

Winning margin

Millwall wins by 2+

19%

Leicester wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Millwall 1+ goals

74%

Millwall 2+ goals

39%

Millwall 3+ goals

15%

Leicester 1+ goals

67%

Leicester 2+ goals

31%

Leicester 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Millwall (draw refunded)

58%

Leicester (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Millwall at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.92 · 30 matches

Leicester away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.27 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Millwall attack 1.44 + Leicester defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.35

Leicester attack 1.32 + Millwall defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Millwall scores more

42%

level

27%

Leicester scores more

31%

Millwall at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Millwall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

Ricardo Pereira

Leicester · D

7.9

Match Events

11'

George Honeyman

21'

Harry Winks

51'

R. Esse← G. Honeyman

59'

R. Longman↳ B. Mitchell

62'

A. Fatawu← Y. Akgün

73'

D. Praet← W. Ndidi

73'

K. Ịheanachọ← J. Vardy

73'

J. Justin← C. Doyle

76'

T. Bradshaw← M. Obafemi

83'

George Saville

88'

P. Daka← H. Winks

89'

B. Norton-Cuffy← R. Longman

90+6'

Matija Šarkić

90'

C. De Norre← Z. Flemming

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MillwallLeicester

Overview

28%Possession72%

6Total Shots11

0.64Expected Goals (xG)0.90

3Corners9

11Fouls6

Shots

6Total Shots11

4On Target3

1Off Target3

1Blocked5

4Inside Box8

2Outside Box3

Passing

28%Possession72%

235Total Passes650

155Accurate Passes558

66%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls6

3Yellow Cards1

1Offsides0