Millwall 0–2 Hull City: Result & Stats

Millwall

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Hull City

J. Gelhardt 79'

M. Belloumi 64'

5/11/2026

Championship · Semi-finalsThe Den

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Millwall41%

×Draw26%

Hull City34%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MillwallExpected goals in this matchHull City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.27

Millwall

1.42

Hull City

1.27

Millwall creates 12% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 21 away

1.22

creates per match

1.26

1.27

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Millwall

1.22

Hull City

1.26

allows per match

Millwall

1.27

Hull City

1.61

+0.03on par

finishing

-0.02on par

finishing

Millwall+0.03on par

Hull City-0.02on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millwall ↓

Hull City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Millwall or draw

66%

Millwall or Hull City

74%

Draw or Hull City

59%

Winning margin

Millwall wins by 2+

19%

Hull City wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Millwall 1+ goals

76%

Millwall 2+ goals

41%

Millwall 3+ goals

17%

Hull City 1+ goals

72%

Hull City 2+ goals

36%

Hull City 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Millwall (draw refunded)

55%

Hull City (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Millwall at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.27 · 12 matches

Hull City away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.61 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Millwall attack 1.22 + Hull City defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.42

Hull City attack 1.26 + Millwall defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Millwall scores more

41%

level

26%

Hull City scores more

34%

Millwall at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Millwall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

M. Belloumi

Hull City · F

8.6

Match Events

10'

John Egan

45+2'

M. Belloumi← K. Joseph

52'

Charlie Hughes

57'

M. Ivanovic← T. Ballo

63'

A. Doughty← Z. Sturge

64'

B. Bannan← C. De Norre

64'

M. Belloumi↳ M. Crooks

69'

Mohamed Belloumi

78'

J. Gelhardt← L. Millar

79'

J. Gelhardt↳ M. Belloumi

84'

J. Lundstram← R. Slater

84'

P. McNair← R. Giles

84'

L. Koumas← O. McBurnie

85'

L. Cundle← D. Mazou-Sacko

85'

M. Langstaff← J. Coburn

88'

Femi Azeez

90+5'

Joe Gelhardt

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MillwallHull

Overview

67%Possession33%

10Total Shots14

0.87Expected Goals (xG)2.12

6Corners8

10Fouls9

Shots

10Total Shots14

5On Target7

4Off Target6

1Blocked1

8Inside Box11

2Outside Box3

Passing

67%Possession33%

463Total Passes227

361Accurate Passes132

78%Pass Accuracy58%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

0.75Goals Prevented0.75

Discipline

10Fouls9

1Yellow Cards4

1Offsides0