Millwall 0–1 Hull City: Result & Stats

Millwall

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Hull City

J. Cooper 58' (OG)

1/18/2025

Championship · Round 27The Den

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 28+ matches

Millwall47%

×Draw26%

Hull City27%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MillwallExpected goals in this matchHull City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.06

Millwall

1.50

Hull City

1.06

Millwall creates 42% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 34 away

1.42

creates per match

1.19

0.94

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Millwall

1.42

Hull City

1.19

allows per match

Millwall

0.94

Hull City

1.57

-0.03on par

finishing

+0.05on par

finishing

Millwall-0.03on par

Hull City+0.05on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millwall ↓

Hull City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Millwall or draw

73%

Millwall or Hull City

74%

Draw or Hull City

53%

Winning margin

Millwall wins by 2+

24%

Hull City wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Millwall 1+ goals

78%

Millwall 2+ goals

44%

Millwall 3+ goals

19%

Hull City 1+ goals

65%

Hull City 2+ goals

29%

Hull City 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Millwall (draw refunded)

64%

Hull City (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Millwall at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.94 · 28 matches

Hull City away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.57 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Millwall attack 1.42 + Hull City defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.50

Hull City attack 1.19 + Millwall defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Millwall scores more

47%

level

26%

Hull City scores more

27%

Millwall at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Millwall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

J. Bryan

Millwall · D

7.6

Match Events

24'

C. Drameh← L. Coyle

58'

J. CooperOwn goal

63'

A. Connolly← C. Scanlon

63'

J. Gelhardt← M. Burstow

72'

M. Langstaff← D. Watmore

77'

B. Mitchell← G. Saville

77'

R. Bangura-Williams← M. Ivanović

81'

George Honeyman

82'

N. Amrabat← A. Kamara

83'

M. Crooks← G. Puerta

90+4'

Joe Gelhardt

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MillwallHull

Overview

53%Possession47%

12Total Shots7

0.71Expected Goals (xG)0.61

1Corners3

13Fouls16

Shots

12Total Shots7

1On Target2

5Off Target2

6Blocked3

7Inside Box3

5Outside Box4

Passing

53%Possession47%

404Total Passes374

299Accurate Passes248

74%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

0.02Goals Prevented0.02

Discipline

13Fouls16

1Yellow Cards1

5Offsides2