Hull City 1–3 Millwall: Result & Stats

Hull City

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Millwall

J. Gelhardt 18'

J. Coburn 78'

M. Ivanovic 70'

J. Cooper 14'

3/7/2026

Championship · Round 36MKM Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Hull City36%

×Draw27%

Millwall37%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hull CityExpected goals in this matchMillwall

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.30

Hull City

1.27

Millwall

1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 9 away

1.31

creates per match

1.45

1.15

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Hull City

1.31

Millwall

1.45

allows per match

Hull City

1.15

Millwall

1.23

-0.22scores less than expected

finishing

-0.23scores less than expected

finishing

Hull City-0.22scores less

Millwall-0.23scores less

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hull City ↓

Millwall →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Hull City or draw

63%

Hull City or Millwall

73%

Draw or Millwall

64%

Winning margin

Hull City wins by 2+

16%

Millwall wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Hull City 1+ goals

72%

Hull City 2+ goals

36%

Hull City 3+ goals

14%

Millwall 1+ goals

73%

Millwall 2+ goals

37%

Millwall 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Hull City (draw refunded)

49%

Millwall (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hull City at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.15 · 11 matches

Millwall away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.23 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hull City attack 1.31 + Millwall defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.27

Millwall attack 1.45 + Hull City defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Hull City scores more

36%

level

27%

Millwall scores more

37%

Millwall at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Millwall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

J. Gelhardt

Hull City · M

8.2

Match Events

14'

J. Cooper↳ T. Crama

18'

J. Gelhardt↳ K. Joseph

31'

John Lundstram

39'

Tom Watson

46'

L. Cundle← T. Watson

46'

A. Doughty← Z. Sturge

54'

Luke Cundle

57'

Jake Cooper

62'

M. Ivanovic←

70'

M. Ivanovic↳ F. Azeez

71'

A. Hadziahmetovic← J. Lundstram

71'

74'

76'

78'

81'

83'

W. Smallbone← J. Coburn

84'

T. Ballo← M. Langstaff

90'

T. Collyer← R. Slater

90+1'

C. McCarthy← L. Coyle

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HullMillwall

Overview

56%Possession44%

23Total Shots9

3.04Expected Goals (xG)1.38

5Corners2

8Fouls15

Shots

23Total Shots9

5On Target4

6Off Target3

12Blocked2

20Inside Box4

3Outside Box5

Passing

56%Possession44%

412Total Passes329

294Accurate Passes229

71%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

0.56Goals Prevented0.56

Discipline

8Fouls15

2Yellow Cards4

0Offsides1

Match Recap: Hull City vs Millwall

Millwall beat Hull City 3-1 in Championship on March 7, 2026.

Goals: J. Cooper (14'), J. Gelhardt (18'), M. Ivanovic (70'), J. Coburn (78').

Hull City controlled possession (56%) and registered 23 shots to 9.

The match was played at MKM Stadium in Hull.

Hull City vs Millwall — Championship 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Hull City vs Millwall