Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Hull City vs Millwall — Championship 2025

Hull City
Hull City
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Millwall
Millwall
5/8/2026ChampionshipChampionship · Semi-finalsMKM Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Hull City36%
×Draw27%
Millwall37%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hull City
1.27
Millwall
1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 9 away

creates per match

Hull City
1.31
Millwall
1.45

allows per match

Hull City
1.15
Millwall
1.23

finishing

Hull City-0.22scores less
Millwall-0.23scores less

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hull City ↓

Millwall →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Hull City or draw
63%
Hull City or Millwall
73%
Draw or Millwall
64%

Winning margin

Hull City wins by 2+
16%
Millwall wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Hull City 1+ goals
72%
Hull City 2+ goals
36%
Hull City 3+ goals
14%
Millwall 1+ goals
73%
Millwall 2+ goals
37%
Millwall 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Hull City (draw refunded)
49%
Millwall (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hull City at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.15 · 11 matches

Millwall away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.23 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hull City attack 1.31 + Millwall defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.27

Millwall attack 1.45 + Hull City defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Hull City scores more
36%
level
27%
Millwall scores more
37%

Millwall at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Millwall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hull City vs Millwall

Hull City and Millwall drew 0-0 in Championship on May 8, 2026.

The match was played at MKM Stadium in Hull.