Millwall 2–2 Hull City: Result & Stats

Millwall

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Hull City

J. Bryan 54'

D. Watmore 8'

Adama Noss Traoré 30'

J. Philogene 25'

10/7/2023

Championship · Round 11The Den

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 59+ matches

Millwall44%

×Draw27%

Hull City29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MillwallExpected goals in this matchHull City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.07

Millwall

1.40

Hull City

1.07

Millwall creates 31% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 59 away

1.26

creates per match

1.11

1.03

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Millwall

1.26

Hull City

1.11

allows per match

Millwall

1.03

Hull City

1.53

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

+0.08on par

finishing

Millwall-0.10scores less

Hull City+0.08on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millwall ↓

Hull City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Millwall or draw

71%

Millwall or Hull City

73%

Draw or Hull City

56%

Winning margin

Millwall wins by 2+

21%

Hull City wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Millwall 1+ goals

75%

Millwall 2+ goals

41%

Millwall 3+ goals

17%

Hull City 1+ goals

66%

Hull City 2+ goals

29%

Hull City 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Millwall (draw refunded)

61%

Hull City (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Millwall at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.03 · 62 matches

Hull City away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.53 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Millwall attack 1.26 + Hull City defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.40

Hull City attack 1.11 + Millwall defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Millwall scores more

44%

level

27%

Hull City scores more

29%

Millwall at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Millwall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

J. Bryan

Millwall · D

8.5

Match Events

8'

D. Watmore

9'

Danny McNamara

25'

J. Philogene↳ S. McLoughlin

30'

Adama Noss Traoré↳ J. Philogene

36'

Wes Harding

46'

T. Bradshaw← D. Watmore

46'

B. Norton-Cuffy← D. McNamara

51'

Ryan Allsop

52'

Casper De Norre

54'

J. Bryan↳ C. De Norre

58'

A. Emakhu← K. Nisbet

61'

A. Connolly← S. Twine

71'

G. Saville← A. Campbell

71'

72'

81'

90+1'

90'

G. Docherty← Adama Noss Traoré

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MillwallHull

Overview

46%Possession54%

13Total Shots8

0.87Expected Goals (xG)1.19

5Corners1

18Fouls7

Shots

13Total Shots8

4On Target3

7Off Target4

2Blocked1

8Inside Box3

5Outside Box5

Passing

46%Possession54%

485Total Passes579

412Accurate Passes513

85%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

18Fouls7

4Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0

Match Recap: Millwall vs Hull City

Millwall and Hull City drew 2-2 in Championship on October 7, 2023.

Goals: D. Watmore (8'), J. Philogene (25'), Adama Noss Traoré (30'), J. Bryan (54').

Hull City controlled possession (54%) and registered 8 shots to 13.

The match was played at The Den in London.

Millwall vs Hull City — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Millwall vs Hull City