Millwall 0–0 Hull City: Result & Stats

Millwall

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Hull City

11/5/2022

Championship · Round 20The Den

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 58+ matches

Millwall44%

×Draw27%

Hull City29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MillwallExpected goals in this matchHull City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.07

Millwall

1.40

Hull City

1.07

Millwall creates 31% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 58 away

1.26

creates per match

1.11

1.03

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Millwall

1.26

Hull City

1.11

allows per match

Millwall

1.03

Hull City

1.54

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

+0.06on par

finishing

Millwall-0.11scores less

Hull City+0.06on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millwall ↓

Hull City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Millwall or draw

71%

Millwall or Hull City

73%

Draw or Hull City

56%

Winning margin

Millwall wins by 2+

21%

Hull City wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Millwall 1+ goals

75%

Millwall 2+ goals

41%

Millwall 3+ goals

17%

Hull City 1+ goals

66%

Hull City 2+ goals

29%

Hull City 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Millwall (draw refunded)

61%

Hull City (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Millwall at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.03 · 61 matches

Hull City away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.54 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Millwall attack 1.26 + Hull City defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.40

Hull City attack 1.11 + Millwall defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Millwall scores more

44%

level

27%

Hull City scores more

29%

Millwall at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Millwall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

N. Baxter

Hull City · G

8.6

Match Events

27'

Dimitrios Pelkas

37'

Óscar Estupiñán

52'

G. Docherty← D. Pelkas

65'

C. Styles← G. Honeyman

65'

M. Bennett← T. Burey

66'

A. Voglsammer← G. Saville

74'

L. Coyle← R. Woods

80'

T. Smith← R. Longman

80'

S. McLoughlin← R. Slater

86'

J. Shackleton← B. Mitchell

86'

G. Evans← D. McNamara

90+5'

Lewie Coyle

90'

Tyler Smith

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MillwallHull

Overview

54%Possession46%

24Total Shots6

10Corners2

9Fouls13

Shots

24Total Shots6

6On Target2

11Off Target2

7Blocked2

15Inside Box3

9Outside Box3

Passing

54%Possession46%

441Total Passes397

368Accurate Passes318

83%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

Discipline

9Fouls13

0Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

1Offsides1