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Millwall vs Hull City — Championship 2018

Millwall
Millwall
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Hull City
Hull City
12/8/2018ChampionshipChampionship · Round 21The Den

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 59+ matches

Millwall44%
×Draw27%
Hull City29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Millwall
1.39
Hull City
1.08

Millwall creates 29% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 59 away

creates per match

Millwall
1.25
Hull City
1.11

allows per match

Millwall
1.04
Hull City
1.53

finishing

Millwall-0.09on par
Hull City+0.08on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millwall ↓

Hull City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Millwall or draw
71%
Millwall or Hull City
73%
Draw or Hull City
56%

Winning margin

Millwall wins by 2+
21%
Hull City wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Millwall 1+ goals
75%
Millwall 2+ goals
40%
Millwall 3+ goals
16%
Hull City 1+ goals
66%
Hull City 2+ goals
29%
Hull City 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Millwall (draw refunded)
60%
Hull City (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Millwall at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.04 · 63 matches

Hull City away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.53 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Millwall attack 1.25 + Hull City defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.39

Hull City attack 1.11 + Millwall defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Millwall scores more
44%
level
27%
Hull City scores more
29%

Millwall at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Millwall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championship: Millwall 2–2 Hull City

Millwall and Hull City drew 2-2 in Championship on December 8, 2018.

The match was played at The Den in London.