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Millwall vs Derby — Championship 2025

Millwall
Millwall
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Derby
Derby
J. Coburn 43'
3/10/2026ChampionshipChampionship · Round 37The Den

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Millwall38%
×Draw26%
Derby36%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Millwall
1.35
Derby
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Millwall
1.30
Derby
1.19

allows per match

Millwall
1.43
Derby
1.41

finishing

Millwall-0.30scores less
Derby-0.19scores less

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millwall ↓

Derby →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Millwall or draw
64%
Millwall or Derby
74%
Draw or Derby
62%

Winning margin

Millwall wins by 2+
17%
Derby wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Millwall 1+ goals
74%
Millwall 2+ goals
39%
Millwall 3+ goals
15%
Derby 1+ goals
73%
Derby 2+ goals
38%
Derby 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Millwall (draw refunded)
51%
Derby (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Millwall at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.43 · 5 matches

Derby away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.41 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Millwall attack 1.30 + Derby defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.35

Derby attack 1.19 + Millwall defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Millwall scores more
38%
level
26%
Derby scores more
36%

Millwall at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Millwall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
T. CramaMillwallMillwall · D
8.2

Match Events

43'
J. Coburn↳ T. Crama
46'
B. Clark← D. Ozoh
55'
Bobby Clark
58'
Dion Sanderson
60'
C. Morris← R. Brewster
60'
J. Banel← B. Brereton Diaz
62'
Carlton Morris
72'
L. Cundle← B. Bannan
73'
M. Langstaff← M. Ivanovic
84'
O. Fraulo← L. Travis
86'
R. O'Donnell← J. Vickers
89'
W. Smallbone← B. Mitchell
89'
T. Watson← F. Azeez
90+1'
D. Mazou-Sacko← J. Coburn

Possession

50%Millwall

Shots

15Millwall

Pass accuracy

49%Millwall

Statistics

MillwallDerby
Overview
50%Possession50%
15Total Shots14
1.68Expected Goals (xG)1.25
6Corners2
7Fouls13
Shots
15Total Shots14
4On Target1
7Off Target7
4Blocked6
10Inside Box9
5Outside Box5
Passing
50%Possession50%
341Total Passes354
241Accurate Passes258
71%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
0Saves3
1.23Goals Prevented1.23
Discipline
7Fouls13
0Yellow Cards3
0Offsides3

Match Recap: Millwall vs Derby

Millwall beat Derby 1-0 in Championship on March 10, 2026.

Goals: J. Coburn (43').

Millwall controlled possession (50%) and registered 15 shots to 14.

The match was played at The Den in London.