Millwall 1–1 Derby: Result & Stats | Championship

Millwall

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Derby

M. Ivanović 85'

J. Yates 78'

10/19/2024

Championship · Round 10The Den

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 27+ matches

Millwall47%

×Draw27%

Derby26%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MillwallExpected goals in this matchDerby

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

0.97

Millwall

1.41

Derby

0.97

Millwall creates 45% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 31 away

1.45

creates per match

0.99

0.96

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Millwall

1.45

Derby

0.99

allows per match

Millwall

0.96

Derby

1.37

-0.01on par

finishing

+0.17scores more than expected

finishing

Millwall-0.01on par

Derby+0.17scores more

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millwall ↓

Derby →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Millwall or draw

74%

Millwall or Derby

73%

Draw or Derby

53%

Winning margin

Millwall wins by 2+

23%

Derby wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Millwall 1+ goals

76%

Millwall 2+ goals

41%

Millwall 3+ goals

17%

Derby 1+ goals

62%

Derby 2+ goals

25%

Derby 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Millwall (draw refunded)

65%

Derby (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Millwall at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.96 · 27 matches

Derby away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.37 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Millwall attack 1.45 + Derby defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.41

Derby attack 0.99 + Millwall defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Millwall scores more

47%

level

27%

Derby scores more

26%

Millwall at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Millwall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

E. Cashin

Derby · D

7.9

Match Events

33'

K. Wilson← R. Nyambe

37'

Joe Bryan

61'

N. Mendez-Laing← C. Blackett-Taylor

62'

B. Osborn← K. Goudmijn

65'

O. Azeez← D. Watmore

73'

M. Ivanović← M. Langstaff

77'

N. Phillips← K. Jackson

78'

J. Collins← M. Harness

78'

J. Yates

84'

D. Kelly← G. Saville

84'

R. Wintle← C. De Norre

85'

M. Ivanović↳ R. Esse

90'

Ryan Wintle

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MillwallDerby

Overview

54%Possession46%

16Total Shots5

1.94Expected Goals (xG)0.68

9Corners5

12Fouls14

Shots

16Total Shots5

6On Target1

4Off Target4

6Blocked0

6Inside Box4

10Outside Box1

Passing

54%Possession46%

292Total Passes244

189Accurate Passes148

65%Pass Accuracy61%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

1.59Goals Prevented1.59

Discipline

12Fouls14

2Yellow Cards0

3Offsides1