Derby 1–1 Millwall: Result & Stats | Championship

Derby

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Millwall

12/10/2025

Championship · Round 20Pride Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Derby31%

×Draw27%

Millwall42%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DerbyExpected goals in this matchMillwall

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.35

Derby

1.11

Millwall

1.35

Millwall creates 22% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

1.13

creates per match

1.33

1.37

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Derby

1.13

Millwall

1.33

allows per match

Derby

1.37

Millwall

1.09

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

-0.33scores less than expected

finishing

Derby+0.12scores more

Millwall-0.33scores less

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derby ↓

Millwall →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Derby or draw

58%

Derby or Millwall

73%

Draw or Millwall

69%

Winning margin

Derby wins by 2+

12%

Millwall wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Derby 1+ goals

67%

Derby 2+ goals

30%

Derby 3+ goals

10%

Millwall 1+ goals

74%

Millwall 2+ goals

39%

Millwall 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Derby (draw refunded)

42%

Millwall (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derby at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.37 · 8 matches

Millwall away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.09 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derby attack 1.13 + Millwall defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.11

Millwall attack 1.33 + Derby defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Derby scores more

31%

level

27%

Millwall scores more

42%

Millwall at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Millwall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff