Derby 0–1 Millwall: Result & Stats | Championship

Derby

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Millwall

J. Coburn 90+5'

2/22/2025

Championship · Round 34Pride Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 31+ matches

Derby38%

×Draw27%

Millwall35%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DerbyExpected goals in this matchMillwall

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.19

Derby

1.25

Millwall

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 39 home / 31 away

1.22

creates per match

1.38

1.01

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Derby

1.22

Millwall

1.38

allows per match

Derby

1.01

Millwall

1.29

+0.06on par

finishing

-0.19scores less than expected

finishing

Derby+0.06on par

Millwall-0.19scores less

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derby ↓

Millwall →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Derby or draw

65%

Derby or Millwall

73%

Draw or Millwall

62%

Winning margin

Derby wins by 2+

16%

Millwall wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Derby 1+ goals

71%

Derby 2+ goals

36%

Derby 3+ goals

13%

Millwall 1+ goals

70%

Millwall 2+ goals

33%

Millwall 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Derby (draw refunded)

52%

Millwall (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derby at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.01 · 39 matches

Millwall away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.29 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derby attack 1.22 + Millwall defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.25

Millwall attack 1.38 + Derby defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Derby scores more

38%

level

27%

Millwall scores more

35%

Derby at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Derby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

M. Clarke

Derby · D

7.9

Match Events

44'

Kenzo Goudmijn

54'

Ryan Nyambe

58'

Z. Sturge← J. Bryan

65'

G. Honeyman← L. Cundle

65'

J. Coburn← M. Ivanović

66'

M. Harness← K. Goudmijn

66'

N. Mendez-Laing← L. Salvesen

66'

T. Barkhuizen← K. Jackson

74'

C. Forsyth← M. Clarke

79'

A. Emakhu← O. Azeez

79'

B. Mitchell← C. De Norre

83'

Josh CoburnMissed penalty

90+1'

K. Roofe← D. Ozoh

90+5'

J. Coburn

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DerbyMillwall

Overview

51%Possession49%

9Total Shots11

0.40Expected Goals (xG)2.40

4Corners4

10Fouls8

Shots

9Total Shots11

0On Target4

3Off Target2

6Blocked5

7Inside Box9

2Outside Box2

Passing

51%Possession49%

353Total Passes345

235Accurate Passes225

67%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

3Saves0

0.00Goals Prevented0.00

Discipline

10Fouls8

2Yellow Cards0

1Offsides1