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Millwall vs Derby — Championship 2018

Millwall
Millwall
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Derby
Derby
S. Malone 45+1'
F. Ebosele 44'
11/6/2021ChampionshipChampionship · Round 17The Den

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 45+ matches

Millwall43%
×Draw28%
Derby29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Millwall
1.29
Derby
1.02

Millwall creates 26% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 45 away

creates per match

Millwall
1.25
Derby
1.01

allows per match

Millwall
1.04
Derby
1.32

finishing

Millwall-0.09on par
Derby+0.28scores more

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millwall ↓

Derby →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Millwall or draw
71%
Millwall or Derby
72%
Draw or Derby
57%

Winning margin

Millwall wins by 2+
19%
Derby wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Millwall 1+ goals
72%
Millwall 2+ goals
37%
Millwall 3+ goals
14%
Derby 1+ goals
64%
Derby 2+ goals
27%
Derby 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Millwall (draw refunded)
59%
Derby (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Millwall at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.04 · 63 matches

Derby away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.32 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Millwall attack 1.25 + Derby defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.29

Derby attack 1.01 + Millwall defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Millwall scores more
43%
level
28%
Derby scores more
29%

Millwall at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Millwall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
J. WallaceMillwallMillwall · F
8.2

Match Events

27'
Nathan Byrne
44'
F. Ebosele↳ T. Lawrence
45+1'
S. Malone↳ J. Wallace
58'
Billy Mitchell
64'
Nathan Byrne
64'
Nathan Byrne
74'
T. Bradshaw← M. Bennett
74'
D. McNamara← D. Ballard
80'
M. Smith← G. Saville
86'
C. Kazim-Richards← F. Ebosele
87'
S. Ojo← B. Afobe
87'
L. Sibley← S. Baldock
90+1'
Jake Cooper
90+6'
O. Aghatise← T. Lawrence

Possession

47%Millwall

Shots

14Millwall

Pass accuracy

48%Millwall

Statistics

MillwallDerby
Overview
47%Possession53%
14Total Shots13
5Corners3
11Fouls7
Shots
14Total Shots13
3On Target5
9Off Target3
2Blocked5
11Inside Box10
3Outside Box3
Passing
47%Possession53%
332Total Passes394
226Accurate Passes293
68%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
4Saves2
Discipline
11Fouls7
2Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards1
4Offsides0

Championship: Millwall 1–1 Derby

Millwall and Derby drew 1-1 in Championship on November 6, 2021.

Goals: F. Ebosele (44'), S. Malone (45+1').

Derby controlled possession (53%) and registered 13 shots to 14.

The match was played at The Den in London.