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Millonarios vs Llaneros — Copa Colombia 2026

Millonarios
Millonarios
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Llaneros
Llaneros
L. Castro 80'
5/12/2026Copa ColombiaCopa Colombia · Group Stage - 2Estadio Metropolitano de Techo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Millonarios52%
×Draw30%
Llaneros17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Millonarios
1.24
Llaneros
0.58

Millonarios creates 114% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 16 away

creates per match

Millonarios
1.67
Llaneros
0.56

allows per match

Millonarios
0.61
Llaneros
0.81

finishing

Millonarios+0.00on par
Llaneros+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millonarios ↓

Llaneros →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–112%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Millonarios or draw
83%
Millonarios or Llaneros
70%
Draw or Llaneros
48%

Winning margin

Millonarios wins by 2+
24%
Llaneros wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Millonarios 1+ goals
71%
Millonarios 2+ goals
35%
Millonarios 3+ goals
13%
Llaneros 1+ goals
44%
Llaneros 2+ goals
12%
Llaneros 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Millonarios (draw refunded)
75%
Llaneros (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Millonarios at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.61 · 18 matches

Llaneros away — creates 0.56, concedes 0.81 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Millonarios attack 1.67 + Llaneros defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.24

Llaneros attack 0.56 + Millonarios defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Millonarios scores more
52%
level
30%
Llaneros scores more
17%

Millonarios at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Millonarios will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

80'
L. Castro

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Millonarios vs Llaneros

Millonarios beat Llaneros 1-0 in Copa Colombia on May 12, 2026.

Goals: L. Castro (80').

The match was played at Estadio Metropolitano de Techo.