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Millonarios vs Llaneros — Primera A 2018

Millonarios
Millonarios
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Llaneros
Llaneros
L. Castro 59'
R. Contreras 4'
L. Miranda 84'
2/14/2026Primera APrimera A · Apertura - 7Estadio Nemesio Camacho El Campin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Millonarios56%
×Draw26%
Llaneros18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Millonarios
1.50
Llaneros
0.71

Millonarios creates 111% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 10 away

creates per match

Millonarios
1.44
Llaneros
0.75

allows per match

Millonarios
0.66
Llaneros
1.55

finishing

Millonarios+0.47scores more
Llaneros-0.05on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millonarios ↓

Llaneros →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Millonarios or draw
82%
Millonarios or Llaneros
74%
Draw or Llaneros
44%

Winning margin

Millonarios wins by 2+
29%
Llaneros wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Millonarios 1+ goals
78%
Millonarios 2+ goals
44%
Millonarios 3+ goals
19%
Llaneros 1+ goals
51%
Llaneros 2+ goals
16%
Llaneros 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Millonarios (draw refunded)
76%
Llaneros (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Millonarios at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.66 · 11 matches

Llaneros away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.55 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Millonarios attack 1.44 + Llaneros defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.50

Llaneros attack 0.75 + Millonarios defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Millonarios scores more
56%
level
26%
Llaneros scores more
18%

Millonarios at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Millonarios will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22
S. ValenciaMillonariosMillonarios · D
7.5

Match Events

4'
R. Contreras↳ S. Valencia
8'
Francisco Meza
9'
Jhon Vásquez
13'
Daniel Mantilla
35'
S. Vega← R. Contreras
42'
Andrés Llinás
46'
D. Banguero← A. Llinas
46'
J. Hurtado← R. Falcao
50'
Mateo García
55'
K. Caicedo← D. Mantilla
56'
Jorge Arias
59'
L. Castro
67'
Kelvin Osorio← M. Sierra
67'
L. Miranda← B. Benitez
78'
N. Ospina← J. Medranda
79'
J. Blanco← C. Cortes
80'
J. Angulo← L. Castro
83'
E. Elizalde← S. Valencia
84'
L. Miranda↳ N. Ospina
90+2'
Julian Angulo
90+5'
Juan Ramirez
90'
Miguel Ortega

Possession

37%Millonarios

Shots

16Millonarios

Pass accuracy

46%Millonarios

Statistics

MillonariosLlaneros
Overview
37%Possession63%
16Total Shots8
1.58Expected Goals (xG)0.28
7Corners4
17Fouls10
Shots
16Total Shots8
6On Target4
7Off Target2
3Blocked2
9Inside Box2
7Outside Box6
Passing
37%Possession63%
241Total Passes426
176Accurate Passes366
73%Pass Accuracy86%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
-0.26Goals Prevented-0.26
Discipline
17Fouls10
4Yellow Cards5
2Offsides2

Primera A: Millonarios 2–1 Llaneros

Millonarios beat Llaneros 2-1 in Primera A on February 14, 2026.

Goals: R. Contreras (4'), L. Castro (59'), L. Miranda (84').

Llaneros controlled possession (63%) and registered 8 shots to 16.

The match was played at Estadio Nemesio Camacho El Campin in Bogota.