Millonarios vs Llaneros — Primera A 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 10+ matches
Millonarios56%
Llaneros18%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Millonarios creates 111% more chances
Season form · 11 home / 10 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under62
- Over38
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No61
- Yes39
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Millonarios ↓
Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Millonarios at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.66 · 11 matches
Llaneros away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.55 · 10 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Millonarios attack 1.44 + Llaneros defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.50
Llaneros attack 0.75 + Millonarios defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.71
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 56%?"
Millonarios at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 56% does not mean "Millonarios will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
Atletico Nacional
Junior
Deportes Tolima
Santa Fe
Independiente Medellin
America de Cali
Bucaramanga
Once Caldas
Fortaleza FC
Deportivo Pasto
Águilas DoradasMillonarios
Deportivo CaliLlaneros
Alianza Valledupar
Internacional de Bogota
Chico
Deportivo Pereira
Union Magdalena
Envigado
Jaguares
CucutaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Millonarios host Llaneros on Tuesday, 29 July 2025 at 01:10. The match is part of the Primera A 2018/2019 season.
Primera A: Millonarios 0–1 Llaneros
Llaneros beat Millonarios 1-0 in Primera A on July 29, 2025.
Goals: D. Mantilla (63').
Millonarios controlled possession (65%) and registered 18 shots to 5.
The match was played at Estadio Nemesio Camacho El Campín in Bogotá, D.C..