Llaneros 2–2 Millonarios: Result & Stats

Llaneros

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Millonarios

B. Uruena 90'

G. Montes 10'

J. Pereira 45'

D. Silva 21'

2/12/2025

Primera A · Apertura - 4Estadio Bello Horizonte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Llaneros39%

×Draw29%

Millonarios32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LlanerosExpected goals in this matchMillonarios

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.02

Llaneros

1.15

Millonarios

1.02

Llaneros creates 13% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 10 away

1.15

creates per match

1.16

0.89

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Llaneros

1.15

Millonarios

1.16

allows per match

Llaneros

0.89

Millonarios

1.16

-0.24scores less than expected

finishing

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

Llaneros-0.24scores less

Millonarios+0.14scores more

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Llaneros ↓

Millonarios →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Llaneros or draw

68%

Llaneros or Millonarios

71%

Draw or Millonarios

61%

Winning margin

Llaneros wins by 2+

16%

Millonarios wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Llaneros 1+ goals

68%

Llaneros 2+ goals

32%

Llaneros 3+ goals

11%

Millonarios 1+ goals

64%

Millonarios 2+ goals

27%

Millonarios 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Llaneros (draw refunded)

55%

Millonarios (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Llaneros at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.89 · 11 matches

Millonarios away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.16 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Llaneros attack 1.15 + Millonarios defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.15

Millonarios attack 1.16 + Llaneros defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Llaneros scores more

39%

level

29%

Millonarios scores more

32%

Llaneros at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Llaneros will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

B. Uruena

Llaneros · M

8.0

Match Events

10'

19'

21'

24'

36'

42'

45'

52'

52'

55'

S. Mosquera← D. Mantilla

63'

C. Sierra

69'

K. Valencia← R. Hinojosa

69'

F. Espinal← M. Rangel

76'

J. Mayorga← E. Restrepo

78'

N. Giraldo← J. E. Cordoba Mosquera

78'

S. Giordana← L. Castro

86'

A. Lopez← M. Medina

90'

B. Uruena

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LlanerosMillonarios

Overview

54%Possession46%

8Total Shots5

5Corners1

15Fouls13

Shots

8Total Shots5

4On Target2

4Off Target2

0Blocked1

2Inside Box3

6Outside Box2

Passing

54%Possession46%

381Total Passes344

329Accurate Passes286

86%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

15Fouls13

2Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

1Offsides1

Primera A: Llaneros 2–2 Millonarios

Llaneros and Millonarios drew 2-2 in Primera A on February 12, 2025.

Goals: G. Montes (10'), D. Silva (21'), J. Pereira (45'), B. Uruena (90').

Llaneros controlled possession (54%) and registered 8 shots to 5.

The match was played at Estadio Bello Horizonte in Villavicencio.

Llaneros vs Millonarios — Primera A 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Primera A: Llaneros 2–2 Millonarios