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Midwest United vs Ann Arbor — USL League Two 2026

Midwest United
Midwest United
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Ann Arbor
Ann Arbor
5/14/2025USL League TwoUSL League Two · Central Conference - 2Aquinas College

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Midwest United38%
×Draw24%
Ann Arbor38%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Midwest United
1.57
Ann Arbor
1.57

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 9 away

creates per match

Midwest United
1.93
Ann Arbor
1.78

allows per match

Midwest United
1.36
Ann Arbor
1.22

finishing

Midwest United+0.00on par
Ann Arbor+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Midwest United ↓

Ann Arbor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Midwest United or draw
62%
Midwest United or Ann Arbor
76%
Draw or Ann Arbor
62%

Winning margin

Midwest United wins by 2+
19%
Ann Arbor wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Midwest United 1+ goals
79%
Midwest United 2+ goals
46%
Midwest United 3+ goals
21%
Ann Arbor 1+ goals
79%
Ann Arbor 2+ goals
46%
Ann Arbor 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Midwest United (draw refunded)
50%
Ann Arbor (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Midwest United at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.36 · 14 matches

Ann Arbor away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Midwest United attack 1.93 + Ann Arbor defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.57

Ann Arbor attack 1.78 + Midwest United defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Midwest United scores more
38%
level
24%
Ann Arbor scores more
38%

Midwest United at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Midwest United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Midwest United 1–2 Ann Arbor

Ann Arbor beat Midwest United 2-1 in USL League Two on May 14, 2025.

The match was played at Aquinas College in Grand Rapids, Michigan.