Ann Arbor 2–1 Midwest United: Result & Stats

Ann Arbor

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Midwest United

6/17/2025

USL League Two · Central Conference - 11Hollway Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Ann Arbor31%

×Draw23%

Midwest United46%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ann ArborExpected goals in this matchMidwest United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.84

Ann Arbor

1.49

Midwest United

1.84

Midwest United creates 23% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 16 away

2.11

creates per match

2.25

1.44

allows per match

0.88

creates per match

Ann Arbor

2.11

Midwest United

2.25

allows per match

Ann Arbor

1.44

Midwest United

0.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ann Arbor+0.00on par

Midwest United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ann Arbor ↓

Midwest United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

65%35%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Ann Arbor or draw

54%

Ann Arbor or Midwest United

77%

Draw or Midwest United

69%

Winning margin

Ann Arbor wins by 2+

15%

Midwest United wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Ann Arbor 1+ goals

77%

Ann Arbor 2+ goals

44%

Ann Arbor 3+ goals

19%

Midwest United 1+ goals

84%

Midwest United 2+ goals

55%

Midwest United 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Ann Arbor (draw refunded)

41%

Midwest United (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ann Arbor at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

Midwest United away — creates 2.25, concedes 0.88 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ann Arbor attack 2.11 + Midwest United defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.49

Midwest United attack 2.25 + Ann Arbor defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Ann Arbor scores more

31%

level

23%

Midwest United scores more

46%

Midwest United at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Midwest United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff