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Ann Arbor vs Midwest United — USL League Two 2026

Ann Arbor
Ann Arbor
FT
3 – 0
Midwest United
Midwest United
6/16/2024USL League TwoUSL League Two · Central Conference - 10Pioneer Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Ann Arbor30%
×Draw23%
Midwest United47%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ann Arbor
1.41
Midwest United
1.81

Midwest United creates 28% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 16 away

creates per match

Ann Arbor
1.93
Midwest United
2.25

allows per match

Ann Arbor
1.36
Midwest United
0.88

finishing

Ann Arbor+0.00on par
Midwest United+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ann Arbor ↓

Midwest United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Ann Arbor or draw
53%
Ann Arbor or Midwest United
77%
Draw or Midwest United
70%

Winning margin

Ann Arbor wins by 2+
13%
Midwest United wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Ann Arbor 1+ goals
76%
Ann Arbor 2+ goals
41%
Ann Arbor 3+ goals
17%
Midwest United 1+ goals
84%
Midwest United 2+ goals
54%
Midwest United 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Ann Arbor (draw refunded)
39%
Midwest United (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ann Arbor at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.36 · 14 matches

Midwest United away — creates 2.25, concedes 0.88 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ann Arbor attack 1.93 + Midwest United defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.41

Midwest United attack 2.25 + Ann Arbor defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Ann Arbor scores more
30%
level
23%
Midwest United scores more
47%

Midwest United at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Midwest United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ann Arbor vs Midwest United

Ann Arbor beat Midwest United 3-0 in USL League Two on June 16, 2024.

The match was played at Pioneer Stadium in Stillwater, Oklahoma.