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Midwest United vs Ann Arbor — USL League Two 2026

Midwest United
Midwest United
FT
3 – 0
Ann Arbor
Ann Arbor
5/18/2024USL League TwoUSL League Two · Central Conference - 1Midwest United FC Soccer Complex field 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Midwest United48%
×Draw23%
Ann Arbor29%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Midwest United
1.88
Ann Arbor
1.41

Midwest United creates 33% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 16 away

creates per match

Midwest United
2.00
Ann Arbor
1.56

allows per match

Midwest United
1.25
Ann Arbor
1.75

finishing

Midwest United+0.00on par
Ann Arbor+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Midwest United ↓

Ann Arbor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Midwest United or draw
71%
Midwest United or Ann Arbor
77%
Draw or Ann Arbor
52%

Winning margin

Midwest United wins by 2+
27%
Ann Arbor wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Midwest United 1+ goals
85%
Midwest United 2+ goals
56%
Midwest United 3+ goals
29%
Ann Arbor 1+ goals
76%
Ann Arbor 2+ goals
41%
Ann Arbor 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Midwest United (draw refunded)
63%
Ann Arbor (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Midwest United at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.25 · 16 matches

Ann Arbor away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.75 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Midwest United attack 2.00 + Ann Arbor defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.88

Ann Arbor attack 1.56 + Midwest United defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Midwest United scores more
48%
level
23%
Ann Arbor scores more
29%

Midwest United at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Midwest United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Midwest United 3–0 Ann Arbor

Midwest United beat Ann Arbor 3-0 in USL League Two on May 18, 2024.

The match was played at Midwest United FC Soccer Complex field 1 in Grand Rapids, Michigan.