Middlesbrough 5–1 Luton: Result & Stats

Middlesbrough

FT

5 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Luton

F. Azaz 87', 51'

D. Burgzorg 54', 30'

E. Latte Lath 42'

J. Clark 77'

11/9/2024

Championship · Round 15Riverside Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Middlesbrough52%

×Draw26%

Luton22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MiddlesbroughExpected goals in this matchLuton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

0.89

Middlesbrough

1.54

Luton

0.89

Middlesbrough creates 73% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 11 away

1.56

creates per match

0.81

0.97

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Middlesbrough

1.56

Luton

0.81

allows per match

Middlesbrough

0.97

Luton

1.53

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

+0.01on par

finishing

Middlesbrough-0.14scores less

Luton+0.01on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Middlesbrough ↓

Luton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Middlesbrough or draw

78%

Middlesbrough or Luton

74%

Draw or Luton

48%

Winning margin

Middlesbrough wins by 2+

27%

Luton wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Middlesbrough 1+ goals

79%

Middlesbrough 2+ goals

45%

Middlesbrough 3+ goals

20%

Luton 1+ goals

59%

Luton 2+ goals

22%

Luton 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Middlesbrough (draw refunded)

71%

Luton (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Middlesbrough at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.97 · 64 matches

Luton away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.53 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Middlesbrough attack 1.56 + Luton defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.54

Luton attack 0.81 + Middlesbrough defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Middlesbrough scores more

52%

level

26%

Luton scores more

22%

Middlesbrough at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Middlesbrough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

F. Azaz

Middlesbrough · M

8.9

Match Events

15'

Shandon Baptiste

30'

D. Burgzorg↳ B. Doak

31'

Delano Burgzorg

42'

E. Latte Lath↳ F. Azaz

46'

V. Moses← A. Bell

49'

Daiki Hashioka

51'

F. Azaz↳ B. Doak

54'

D. Burgzorg↳ E. Latte Lath

55'

C. Morris← C. Woodrow

55'

T. Krauß← S. Baptiste

59'

59'

62'

66'

71'

M. Hamilton← D. Burgzorg

71'

D. Barlaser← A. Morris

71'

T. Conway← E. Latte Lath

75'

D. Fry← G. Edmundson

77'

J. Clark↳ T. Krauß

81'

I. Jones← B. Doak

87'

F. Azaz↳ L. Ayling

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MiddlesbroughLuton

Overview

52%Possession48%

11Total Shots5

1.32Expected Goals (xG)0.32

1Corners1

6Fouls15

Shots

11Total Shots5

6On Target3

4Off Target1

1Blocked1

9Inside Box3

2Outside Box2

Passing

52%Possession48%

520Total Passes472

426Accurate Passes382

82%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

-1.79Goals Prevented-1.79

Discipline

6Fouls15

1Yellow Cards4

2Offsides5

Championship: Middlesbrough 5–1 Luton

Middlesbrough beat Luton 5-1 in Championship on November 9, 2024.

Goals: D. Burgzorg (30', 54'), E. Latte Lath (42'), F. Azaz (51', 87'), J. Clark (77').

Middlesbrough controlled possession (52%) and registered 11 shots to 5.

The match was played at Riverside Stadium in Middlesbrough.

Middlesbrough vs Luton — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: Middlesbrough 5–1 Luton