Middlesbrough 2–1 Luton: Result & Stats

Middlesbrough

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Luton

D. Watmore 87'

P. McNair 17' (pen)

H. Cornick 90+6'

3/5/2022

Championship · Round 36Riverside Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Middlesbrough53%

×Draw25%

Luton22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MiddlesbroughExpected goals in this matchLuton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

0.91

Middlesbrough

1.58

Luton

0.91

Middlesbrough creates 74% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 21 away

1.56

creates per match

0.85

0.97

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Middlesbrough

1.56

Luton

0.85

allows per match

Middlesbrough

0.97

Luton

1.59

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

-0.04on par

finishing

Middlesbrough-0.14scores less

Luton-0.04on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Middlesbrough ↓

Luton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Middlesbrough or draw

78%

Middlesbrough or Luton

75%

Draw or Luton

47%

Winning margin

Middlesbrough wins by 2+

28%

Luton wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Middlesbrough 1+ goals

79%

Middlesbrough 2+ goals

47%

Middlesbrough 3+ goals

21%

Luton 1+ goals

60%

Luton 2+ goals

23%

Luton 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Middlesbrough (draw refunded)

71%

Luton (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Middlesbrough at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.97 · 64 matches

Luton away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.59 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Middlesbrough attack 1.56 + Luton defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.58

Luton attack 0.85 + Middlesbrough defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Middlesbrough scores more

53%

level

25%

Luton scores more

22%

Middlesbrough at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Middlesbrough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

35

I. Jones

Middlesbrough · M

7.5

Match Events

17'

P. McNairPenalty

20'

39'

49'

61'

63'

D. Watmore← F. Balogun

65'

J. Clark← K. Naismith

73'

H. Cornick← A. Campbell

83'

J. Coburn← A. Connolly

87'

90+3'

90+1'

90+1'

90+6'

H. Cornick↳ E. Adebayo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MiddlesbroughLuton

Overview

56%Possession44%

8Total Shots9

4Corners2

10Fouls20

Shots

8Total Shots9

3On Target5

2Off Target2

3Blocked2

5Inside Box8

3Outside Box1

Passing

56%Possession44%

372Total Passes289

257Accurate Passes183

69%Pass Accuracy63%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

10Fouls20

2Yellow Cards3

0Offsides2

Championship: Middlesbrough 2–1 Luton

Middlesbrough beat Luton 2-1 in Championship on March 5, 2022.

Goals: P. McNair (17' pen), D. Watmore (87'), H. Cornick (90+6').

Middlesbrough controlled possession (56%) and registered 8 shots to 9.

The match was played at Riverside Stadium in Middlesbrough.

Middlesbrough vs Luton — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: Middlesbrough 2–1 Luton