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Luton vs Middlesbrough — Championship 2018

Luton
Luton
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough
C. Morris 67' (pen)
T. Lockyer 49'
C. Archer 40'
4/24/2023ChampionshipChampionship · Round 44Kenilworth Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Luton40%
×Draw27%
Middlesbrough33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luton
1.31
Middlesbrough
1.15

Luton creates 14% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 63 away

creates per match

Luton
1.39
Middlesbrough
1.37

allows per match

Luton
0.93
Middlesbrough
1.23

finishing

Luton-0.29scores less
Middlesbrough+0.19scores more

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luton ↓

Middlesbrough →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Luton or draw
67%
Luton or Middlesbrough
73%
Draw or Middlesbrough
60%

Winning margin

Luton wins by 2+
18%
Middlesbrough wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Luton 1+ goals
73%
Luton 2+ goals
38%
Luton 3+ goals
14%
Middlesbrough 1+ goals
68%
Middlesbrough 2+ goals
32%
Middlesbrough 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Luton (draw refunded)
55%
Middlesbrough (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luton at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.93 · 21 matches

Middlesbrough away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.23 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luton attack 1.39 + Middlesbrough defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.31

Middlesbrough attack 1.37 + Luton defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Luton scores more
40%
level
27%
Middlesbrough scores more
33%

Luton at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Luton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
T. LockyerLutonLuton · D
7.6

Match Events

40'
C. Archer↳ M. Crooks
49'
T. Lockyer↳ A. Doughty
56'
J. Clark← A. Campbell
67'
C. MorrisPenalty
75'
J. Taylor← C. Morris
76'
L. Berry← P. Mpanzu
78'
Luke Berry
78'
Rodrigo Muniz← C. Archer
83'
J. Johnson← A. Doughty
84'
L. Freeman← E. Adebayo
90+1'
Amari'i Bell

Possession

37%Luton

Shots

8Luton

Pass accuracy

46%Luton

Statistics

LutonMiddlesbrough
Overview
37%Possession63%
8Total Shots9
4Corners5
10Fouls9
Shots
8Total Shots9
3On Target1
1Off Target5
4Blocked3
7Inside Box7
1Outside Box2
Passing
37%Possession63%
320Total Passes549
233Accurate Passes463
73%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
0Saves2
Discipline
10Fouls9
2Yellow Cards0
5Offsides2

Match Recap: Luton vs Middlesbrough

Luton beat Middlesbrough 2-1 in Championship on April 24, 2023.

Goals: C. Archer (40'), T. Lockyer (49'), C. Morris (67' pen).

Middlesbrough controlled possession (63%) and registered 9 shots to 8.

The match was played at Kenilworth Road in Luton, Bedfordshire.