Luton 0–0 Middlesbrough: Result & Stats

Luton

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Middlesbrough

3/15/2025

Championship · Round 38Kenilworth Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Luton41%

×Draw28%

Middlesbrough31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LutonExpected goals in this matchMiddlesbrough

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.08

Luton

1.29

Middlesbrough

1.08

Luton creates 19% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 63 away

1.36

creates per match

1.37

0.79

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Luton

1.36

Middlesbrough

1.37

allows per match

Luton

0.79

Middlesbrough

1.23

-0.54scores less than expected

finishing

+0.19scores more than expected

finishing

Luton-0.54scores less

Middlesbrough+0.19scores more

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luton ↓

Middlesbrough →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Luton or draw

69%

Luton or Middlesbrough

72%

Draw or Middlesbrough

59%

Winning margin

Luton wins by 2+

19%

Middlesbrough wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Luton 1+ goals

72%

Luton 2+ goals

37%

Luton 3+ goals

14%

Middlesbrough 1+ goals

66%

Middlesbrough 2+ goals

29%

Middlesbrough 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Luton (draw refunded)

57%

Middlesbrough (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luton at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.79 · 11 matches

Middlesbrough away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.23 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luton attack 1.36 + Middlesbrough defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.29

Middlesbrough attack 1.37 + Luton defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Luton scores more

41%

level

28%

Middlesbrough scores more

31%

Luton at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Luton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

45

A. Doughty

Luton · M

8.0

Match Events

24'

55'

64'

67'

69'

70'

Lamine Fanne← L. Walsh

70'

75'

75'

89'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LutonMiddlesbrough

Overview

45%Possession55%

19Total Shots7

2.46Expected Goals (xG)0.24

9Corners2

18Fouls12

Shots

19Total Shots7

5On Target0

10Off Target4

4Blocked3

14Inside Box3

5Outside Box4

Passing

45%Possession55%

302Total Passes382

199Accurate Passes286

66%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

1.36Goals Prevented1.36

Discipline

18Fouls12

2Yellow Cards3

2Offsides4