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Metz vs Guingamp — Ligue 2 2018

Metz
Metz
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Guingamp
Guingamp
P. Diallo 71'
10/25/2024Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 10Stade Saint-Symphorien

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Metz49%
×Draw26%
Guingamp25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Metz
1.54
Guingamp
1.03

Metz creates 50% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 129 away

creates per match

Metz
1.79
Guingamp
1.25

allows per match

Metz
0.82
Guingamp
1.29

finishing

Metz+0.00on par
Guingamp+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metz ↓

Guingamp →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Metz or draw
75%
Metz or Guingamp
74%
Draw or Guingamp
51%

Winning margin

Metz wins by 2+
25%
Guingamp wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Metz 1+ goals
79%
Metz 2+ goals
45%
Metz 3+ goals
20%
Guingamp 1+ goals
64%
Guingamp 2+ goals
28%
Guingamp 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Metz (draw refunded)
66%
Guingamp (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metz at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.82 · 62 matches

Guingamp away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.29 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metz attack 1.79 + Guingamp defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.54

Guingamp attack 1.25 + Metz defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Metz scores more
49%
level
26%
Guingamp scores more
25%

Metz at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Metz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
P. DialloMetzMetz · M
8.2

Match Events

69'
M. Colin← K. Kouao
71'
P. Diallo↳ C. Sabaly
76'
S. Guendouz← H. Picard
76'
T. Luvambo← R. Ghrieb
76'
A. Sagna← B. Labeau
77'
M. Bokele Mputu← P. Diallo
84'
L. Phiri← D. Louiserre
84'
L. Vallier← L. Maronnier
90+1'
J. Asoro← A. Jallow
90+1'
I. Sané← C. Sabaly

Possession

52%Metz

Shots

14Metz

Pass accuracy

52%Metz

Statistics

MetzGuingamp
Overview
52%Possession48%
14Total Shots11
3Corners8
9Fouls10
Shots
14Total Shots11
7On Target3
4Off Target4
3Blocked4
10Inside Box6
4Outside Box5
Passing
52%Possession48%
501Total Passes444
422Accurate Passes352
84%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
3Saves6
Discipline
9Fouls10

Metz 1 – 0 Guingamp

Metz beat Guingamp 1-0 in Ligue 2 on October 25, 2024.

Goals: P. Diallo (71').

Metz controlled possession (52%) and registered 14 shots to 11.

The match was played at Stade Saint-Symphorien in Longeville-lès-Metz.