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Guingamp vs Metz — Ligue 2 2018

Guingamp
Guingamp
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Metz
Metz
M. Udol 90+3'
I. Gueye 87'
G. Hein 28' (pen)
2/15/2025Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 23Stade du Roudourou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Guingamp32%
×Draw27%
Metz40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guingamp
1.12
Metz
1.29

Metz creates 15% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 62 away

creates per match

Guingamp
1.40
Metz
1.39

allows per match

Guingamp
1.20
Metz
0.84

finishing

Guingamp+0.00on par
Metz+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guingamp ↓

Metz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Guingamp or draw
60%
Guingamp or Metz
73%
Draw or Metz
68%

Winning margin

Guingamp wins by 2+
13%
Metz wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Guingamp 1+ goals
67%
Guingamp 2+ goals
31%
Guingamp 3+ goals
10%
Metz 1+ goals
72%
Metz 2+ goals
37%
Metz 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Guingamp (draw refunded)
44%
Metz (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guingamp at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.20 · 126 matches

Metz away — creates 1.39, concedes 0.84 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guingamp attack 1.40 + Metz defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.12

Metz attack 1.39 + Guingamp defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Guingamp scores more
32%
level
27%
Metz scores more
40%

Metz at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Metz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

39
K. KouaoMetzMetz · D
8.3

Match Events

27'
Sohaib Nair
28'
G. HeinPenalty
63'
Koffi Kouao
66'
R. Ghrieb← T. Le Bris
75'
M. Riou← K. Sidibé
75'
L. Phiri← D. Louiserre
76'
Junior Armando Mendes← D. Gomis
81'
M. Bokele Mputu← P. Diallo
81'
A. Jallow← C. Sabaly
82'
S. Guendouz← H. Picard
87'
I. Gueye
90+2'
I. Sané← G. Hein
90+3'
M. Udol↳ K. Kouao

Possession

58%Guingamp

Shots

16Guingamp

Pass accuracy

51%Guingamp

Statistics

GuingampMetz
Overview
58%Possession42%
16Total Shots14
9Corners2
11Fouls14
Shots
16Total Shots14
7On Target6
4Off Target4
5Blocked4
12Inside Box8
4Outside Box6
Passing
58%Possession42%
549Total Passes394
464Accurate Passes326
85%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
3Saves7
Discipline
11Fouls14
1Yellow Cards1
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Guingamp vs Metz

Metz beat Guingamp 3-0 in Ligue 2 on February 15, 2025.

Goals: G. Hein (28' pen), I. Gueye (87'), M. Udol (90+3').

Guingamp controlled possession (58%) and registered 16 shots to 14.

The match was played at Stade du Roudourou in Guingamp.